After exiting EU, what’s next for ‘ Global Britain’?

LONDON — A brave new world or a dangerous leap into the unknown? After nearly 50 years of integration with Europe, the United Kingdom starts an uncertain new chapter on Jan 1.

What changes on Jan 1?

Britain formally quits the European Union in January this year but has continued to observe all its rules during a transition period.

That halfway house ends at 23: 00 GMT on Dec 31. So from 2021, it will stand on its own, for better or worse.

If the two sides can secure a new trade deal in the time left, that will smooth the path by lifting the prospect of tariffs and quotas for cross- channel goods, from cars to lamb.

Without a deal, imports and exports face serious disruption with the abrupt return of barriers that have not existed for decades.

There are fears certain foodstuffs and medicines could run short.

But even with a deal, the future won’t be seamless.

UK exporters will need to file reams of new customs paperwork to prove their goods have authorization to enter the EU’s single market.

What is ‘ Global Britain’?

Brexiteers argue the EU has held the UK back through onerous regulation and it can now embark on a buccaneering new mission to support free trade around the world — “God’s diplomacy”, according to a February speech by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

A month after Johnson’s speech, the country was forced into a national lockdown by the coronavirus pandemic.

“Now Global Britain is back, it is time for the makers, the doers and the innovators to help us write our most exciting chapter yet,” International Trade Secretary Liz Truss declared in October, touting UK exports of everything from clotted cream to robots.

Truss has signed a post- Brexit trade deal with Japan, and is negotiating others with the United States, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

Further deals in the pipeline will cover 80 percent of overseas trade by 2022, according to the government, which has shaken up the Foreign Office to integrate aid and development into Britain’s diplomatic agenda.

Will a closer EU emerge?

For some observers, the decision in July at a marathon EU summit to move toward joint borrowing to fund a post- coronavirus recovery plan for the union is a sign of what can now be achieved.

“With the British, we wouldn’t even have discussed this, they’d have said ‘ no’ straight away,” says French professor Robert Frank, who wrote a book on Britain’s difficult European relations.

The stimulus plan, which emerged from four straight days and nights of haggling between EU leaders, was hailed as a breakthrough by EU enthusiasts.

“It’s going to create a common fiscal policy for the EU that it hasn’t ever had before,” says Andrew Duff, a British former MEP and European federalist, now a visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre.