China must be wary of hot money inflows

As a general target, China’s growth rate has been set at over 6 percent for this year. Since this is a low-hanging fruit, many predict that the country might become the first major economy to bid farewell to the stimulus packages customized for the COVID-19 pandemic.

In contrast, the US Congress recently approved the Joe Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. And more US stimulus policies are anticipated.

That means that while the United States is in a hurry to give a shot in the arm to boost its economy and employment market, despite its record high debt and deficit ratios, China is giving more consideration to its long-term development objectives, and the quality and efficiency of its economic growth.

If China tried to stimulate its economic growth as the US is doing, it would have to pay a heavy price, since its mounting debts would necessarily affect the real economy and brew financial risks, derailing its development from the right track of innovation-driven highquality development.

Apparently, China has drawn lessons from its response to the international financial crisis, while the US is still taking it for granted that as happened after the outbreak of that crisis in 2008 the rest of the world will undertake to shoulder the negative consequences of the US’ limitless quantitative easing policy while keeping the positive effects exclusive to itself.

The more currency notes the US prints to bail out its own economy, the more measures and precautions China should take to block the inflow of hot money. Exercising strict macro-control in the real estate market to avoid sharp rise in asset prices should therefore be a key job on the to-do list of governments of various levels, and China should remain alert to systemic financial risks.

Since the Fed has publicly stated that it will continue with its quantitative easing policy since the economy is a long way from its employment and inflation goals, “and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved, it will not stop until the goal is fulfilled”, China’s domestic policy needs to be prepared for the risks posed by speculative capital.