Climate communiques going public

Is this summer hotter or having more rain? Is this winter colder? What do farmers, brewers or down jacket manufacturers need to pay attention to in advance this year? The answers can now be found on government websites.

On Tuesday, the China Meteorological Administration began releasing regular climate prediction communiques to the public that were previously only provided to government departments.

The communiques will forecast climate trends for the next month, season or even year, longer than a weather forecast that looks ahead about two weeks, the administration said.

“Unlike a weather forecast that just deals with temperature and precipitation, the communique describes climate trends and how they will deviate from the average level of normal years,” said Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center.

The first communique released publicly on the center’s website forecast that from April 1 to 20, temperatures in parts of North and Northwest China and regions along the Yangtze and Huaihe rivers will be lower than normal. Four cold fronts will hit Central and East China and precipitation in most parts of China will be 20 to 50 percent greater than usual.

The communique also suggested measures that should be taken to combat droughts, cold fronts and sandy and dusty weather.

“A climate prediction that includes a longer period is valuable to agricultural production, energy usage, materials storage and other economic activities,” Jia said. “A climate trend forecast can be as essential as production factors.”

The administration decided to publish climate communiques nationwide because prediction accuracy is increasing.

“As our climate forecasting capability improves and people’s demands for climate prediction increase, we made the decision to serve the public with more climate information,” Jia said.

However, he said, China’s climate predictions are still only about 70 percent accurate.

“People need to hold an objective view toward uncertainty in climate prediction and use prediction results in a reasonable way,” he said.

Climate prediction remains difficult around the world and the technology is still being researched, tested and improved globally, Jia said.

“Climate prediction is complicated. It’s not only about changes in atmospheric circulation, which a weather forecast mainly considers, but it’s also about influences on the circulation from oceans, polar ice, snow cover and human activities,” he said.

In November, China’s third-generation climate modeling technology was put into operation to forecast monthly, seasonal and yearly climates. It has reached an internationally “advanced level”, the administration said.

A climate prediction that includes a longer period is valuable to agricultural production, energy usage, materials storage and other economic activities.”

Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center