Japan’s ruling party faces uncertain future
The decisions to dissolve three factions in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will create ambiguity in the internal power balance of the party and heighten uncertainties in regard to the future of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet, experts said.
On Friday, two of the largest LDP factions — the Abe and Nikai factions, identified with the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe and former LDP secretary-general Toshihiro Nikai — announced their decision to disband amid a slush funds scandal.
The announcements were made after Kishida said on Thursday that he is considering disbanding the Kishida faction, in response to the controversy surrounding the political funds scandal within LDP factions.
Allegations suggest that lawmakers affiliated with several LDP factions redirected funds exceeding the sales quota for party tickets back to the politicians as slush funds, with no record of the entire financial flow in the factions or their members’ financial statements.
Ukeru Magosaki, a former senior official with Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said the decision to dissolve the three factions creates ambiguity in the internal power balance of the LDP. “The future of the Kishida administration is extremely uncertain,” Magosaki said.
“The decisions to dissolve the Abe, Nikai and Kishida factions raise uncertainty about the power dynamics within the LDP.”
The move also came as approval ratings for the LDP have sunken to a record low in the wake of the scandal, according to a recent opinion poll.
Public support for the LDP dropped to 14.6 percent, down 3.7 percentage points from the previous month, Japanese news agency Jiji Press said in its latest survey.
Low ratings
It marked the lowest rate since the monthly poll started in 1960, excluding periods when the LDP was an opposition party, according to the January survey released on Thursday.
Observing this, the move to dissolve the factions was initiated, Magosaki said.
However, the United States views the Kishida administration, which fully accepts Washington’s requests, as highly desirable and intends to support it. At present, it is a challenge to accurately anticipate future developments, Magosaki said.
If the three major factions were to disband, members left without a place to go are likely to either join a new faction taking the form of a study group initiated by nonaffiliated members within the LDP or merge with the Taro Aso and Toshimitsu Motegi factions, which advocate maintaining their respective factions, said Kazuyuki Hamada, international political economy scholar and former parliamentary vice-minister for foreign affairs of Japan.
It would be difficult to break away from the factional politics that the LDP has built up over the years, Hamada said.
“In the subsequent LDP leadership election, Taro Aso, vice-president of the party, is expected to take charge and strengthen cooperation with the Motegi faction. Ultimately, it appears that the LDP is on the verge of a split,” he said.
According to a survey conducted by The Asahi Shimbun over the weekend, 72 percent of voters said the dissolution of factions in the LDP will not restore public trust in politics.
“If the LDP genuinely desires to restore trust in politics, it must reform the electoral system, visibly eliminate hereditary succession and vested interests, and present a clear vision for creating Japan’s future in collaboration with the people,” Hamada said.