Right-wingers on course for success in EU elections

Newly published research has suggested that far-right parties are on course for major success at the European elections in June, which could result in significant changes in policy on Europe-wide issues such as climate change.

A combination of opinion polls carried out in all 27 European Union member states and analysis of past electoral behavior has been collated into a report for the European Council on Foreign Relations, or ECFR.

Its authors said the findings should be a wake-up call to mainstream politicians to ensure that it should be them who set the policy agenda, rather than fringe groups.

“Campaigns should give citizens reason for optimism,” said Simon Hix, one of the report’s authors from the European University Institute in Florence. “They should speak to the benefits of multilateralism.”

In nine countries, parties of the radical right look set to come out on top. Those countries include Poland, Austria and France, where Marine Le Pen of the National Rally has lost the last two presidential elections to Emmanuel Macron.

The right is also expected to finish second or third in countries including Spain, Sweden and Germany, where support for the Alternative for Deutschland party has been spreading westward from its eastern heartland.

The research suggested the Brothers of Italy party could see its representation in the 705-seat parliament rise to 27, while the National Rally could win a record 25 members, as centrist parties lose seats.

If the predictions are accurate, the European Parliament could end up with a majority right-wing coalition for the first time.

Shift in power

ECFR senior fellow Susi Dennison told the Euractiv news website that a shift in the balance of power could pose a major challenge to long-established and agreed-upon pan-European projects.

“In key areas such as migration, climate, support for Ukraine, some of the consensuses, which have held in European politics over the past five years under the current parliament, will become more difficult to push through,” she explained.

Although the parliament has only a limited ability to direct EU foreign policy, the election result could have an impact on individual national policy debates that could have wider consequences.

The report also forecast that Bulgaria’s Revival party, which is anti-NATO and the EU, would gain its first three seats at the European Parliament.