Europe’s risk coefficient not reduced by NATO’s expansion

On Tuesday, after 20 months of haggling, the Grand National Assembly of Turkiye approved a motion on Sweden’s membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Sweden now only needs Hungary’s approval to join NATO.

Due to Kurdish issues, bilateral relations between Sweden and Turkiye became tense in 2019 and 2023. In July 2023, Turkiye proposed at the NATO summit that it would give a green light to Sweden’s entry to NATO in exchange for the purchase of 40 F-16 fighter planes from the United States. The US Congress said that only after Turkiye approves Sweden’s accession to NATO can it approve the deal. But reports indicate that the Joe Biden administration has already given the nod to the deal.

In this bargaining process, Finland also lifted the arms embargo it had imposed on Turkiye. So it can be said that Turkiye basically got what it wanted.

After Turkiye’s move, Hungary, which had previously blocked Sweden’s accession to NATO, also showed signs of a change of mind. However, the Swedish side said that there is no reason to negotiate with Hungary on the issue of joining NATO. If so, its accession to NATO may be delayed for some time.

Even if Hungary and Sweden conduct relevant dialogue, it will take some time for the former to make the decision on the issue. Therefore, although Sweden is only one step away from joining NATO, no one can be 100 percent sure about it.

But although it is not a member yet, Sweden has participated in many of NATO activities. In March 2023, Sweden signed a letter of intent with Norway, Finland and Denmark to establish a joint air force presence at NATO military bases in Germany. The four countries plan to establish a joint air force with more than 400 fighter planes, develop joint air combat concepts within the NATO framework, and connect command systems and equipment with the NATO air force.

In addition, on Wednesday, NATO held a military exercise that will last for four months, which is the largest military exercise in NATO’s history since the end of the Cold War. Apart from the 31 members of NATO, Sweden will also participate in it.

After the end of the Cold War, NATO has expanded six times from 16 members to 31 now. However, the expansion has not improved the security situation in Europe. Even if NATO expands to 32 countries, it may not reduce Europe’s risk factor.