Wellington should measure twice before cutting
The foreign and defense ministers of New Zealand and Australia held their first-ever “2+2” meeting on Thursday in Melbourne. Since New Zealand’s cooperation with the AUKUS alliance was apparently on the agenda, it has raised concerns. Questions are being asked about whether New Zealand will hold firm to its nonnuclear stance and what are intentions of the trilateral military group in trying to draw New Zealand into its fold.
When the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia formed AUKUS in 2021 with the main purpose of helping Australia acquire a fleet of nuclearpowered submarines in response to “regional security concerns”, New Zealand seemed comfortable about the fact that it was not party to the pact.
However, since a coalition of right-wing parties took power in November last year, New Zealand’s stance on AUKUS has begun to change as its new government wants to join pillar two of the AUKUS agreement, which reportedly centers on advanced technology sharing, including artificial intelligence and cyberwarfare, and military interoperability.
New Zealand may have calculated that its participation in pillar two of AUKUS, not pillar one that focuses on Australia’s acquisition of nuclear submarine technology, can help it get closer to its Western allies in a rapidly changing world environment while still maintaining its own nonnuclear stance.
But if so, it is being naive as the geopolitical intention of AUKUS cannot be more obvious. The group has been formed for the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology, materials and know-how. New Zealand should recognize that it not only undermines the international nonproliferation regime, but also fuels a regional arms race and imperils peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific and beyond.
Given the grave regional and global impacts of the AUKUS nuclear deal, the group has drawn worldwide opprobrium and opposition since its formation. Hence, New Zealand should think twice before accepting any invitation to join it. The US, of course, is keen to draw its Five-Eye partner into the military alliance to facilitate its bloc competition both regionally and globally. But such a prospect would not best serve the interests of New Zealand.
Unlike some Western countries that have aped each move taken by the US to contain China, New Zealand has maintained its strategic autonomy, and benefited from doing so. For more than a decade, China has remained the country’s largest trading partner. Robust cooperation with China continues to create enormous trade, economic and job opportunities for New Zealand. It has everything to gain by maintaining its good relations with China.
Whatever role New Zealand is being solicited to play in joining AUKUS, it would no doubt cast a shadow on bilateral ties and even offset what has been achieved in advancing bilateral cooperation.