Provinces bullish on growth this year
Most provincial-level regions in China have set their 2024 economic growth targets at above 5 percent, reflecting collective confidence in the nation’s economic prospects and hinting at a year of steady recovery.
Analysts expect China to set an annual growth target of around 5 percent for 2024, similar to the previous year, which will help boost business confidence and stabilize expectations.
While a slump in the property sector will likely drag down economic growth, they said any GDP growth target of around 5 percent would be achievable this year given strong fiscal policy support and the country’s intensified efforts to foster new productive forces.
As of Tuesday, 31 provinciallevel regions on the Chinese mainland had released their latest government work reports.
“The 31 provincial-level regions have set their annual GDP targets at 4.5 percent to 8 percent this year, with the weighted average standing at 5.4 percent,” said Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities.
“China will likely set its economic growth goal in early March at around 5 percent this year, with economically strong regions playing a key role in driving economic recovery.”
Central Hubei province, which enjoyed robust growth of 6 percent last year, has retained the ambitious 6 percent growth target this year as well.
The southern coastal province of Guangdong, and East China’s Jiangsu province, the top two economically strong provinces, have set their annual economic growth goals at 5 percent and above 5 percent, respectively.
Citing those regions’ latest government work reports, Xiong said most regions have highlighted the importance of fostering productive forces, pledging more efforts to intensify support for technological innovation and accelerate the building of a modern industrial system.
According to its latest government work report, Hubei will intensify efforts to make breakthroughs in emerging technologies including high-end artificial intelligence chips, intelligent numerically controlled machine tools and high-end medical equipment.
With a key focus on nurturing new productive forces and accelerating the advancement of new industrialization, the province will boost development in areas such as life sciences, AI large language models, cutting-edge materials and future energy while accelerating development of the digital economy.
Looking ahead, Guangdong aims to construct a more internationally competitive modern industrial system this year.
The focus will be on developing emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy storage, cutting-edge materials, ultra-high-definition displays, biomanufacturing and commercial aerospace.
Feng Jianlin, chief economist at Beijing FOST Economic Consulting Co, said the economically strong provinces, with their robust innovative capacities and ongoing efforts to deepen reforms and opening-up, will continue to play an important role in supporting China’s overall economic growth this year.
“We believe an annual growth target of around 5 percent will be achievable this year, given China’s continued recovery trend, anticipated improvement in services and employment, steady growth in people’s incomes and consumption, and accelerated growth in investment,” Feng said.