Structure more important than growth rate in trade

In the first two months of 2024, the total value of China’s goods trade was 6.61 trillion yuan ($919.8 billion), up 8.7 percent yearon-year, of which exports increased by 10.3 percent, imports increased by 6.7 percent, and the trade surplus was 890.87 billion yuan, up 23.6 percent year-on-year.

China and its major trading partners have maintained stable import and export scales. The United States is still the largest trading country with China, with a total bilateral trade value of 707.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percent, accounting for 10.7 percent of China’s foreign trade over the past two months.

In terms of regional trade, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ trade value with China increased by 8.1 percent, accounting for 15 percent of China’s foreign trade; the European Union is the second-largest trading partner of China, accounting for 12.6 percent of China’s foreign trade.

China’s trade with Latin America and Africa has achieved a rapid growth of 13.9 percent, especially the export growth rate of more than 20 percent year-on-year.

Notably China’s major export products have all achieved marked growth. Exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 8.5 percent, accounting for nearly 60 percent of China’s exports. The growth rate of the exports of traditional labor-intensive products reached 22.2 percent, indicating that China’s traditional industries still have strong competitiveness.

China’s imports of major commodities, such as natural gas, coal, iron ore and crude oil, increased steadily over the past two months. Indicators such as corporate finished product inventory, raw material inventory, and inventory growth have gradually stabilized at the bottom of the cycle. With the recovery of market demand, imports of upstream primary products are on the rise, ushering in the starting point of a new round of inventory cycle recovery.

All signs show that China’s foreign trade in 2024 is expected to be better than the previous year. Yet it should also be noted that the high growth rate of foreign trade may be difficult to maintain due to volatile world situations and the rise of protectionism. With the rising costs of domestic labor and raw materials, it is also difficult for the export of labor-intensive products to maintain rapid growth. Compared with the expansion of trade scale, China should do more to enhance the quality and efficiency of foreign trade and the continuous optimization and upgrading of its export product structure.