Kishida government gets jittery once again, as Biden-Trump clash hots up

As a Biden-Trump contest is becoming increasingly clear in the US presidential elections, the Fumio Kishida government is in touch with the Donald Trump camp to explore Trump’s policy toward Japan.

Considering the unequal relationship between Japan and the US, it is not surprising that Japan is hedging its bets on the US presidential election. Japan is so firmly tied to the US chariot that it must keep a close eye on changes in US politics. In the 2016 US election, then Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe bet on Hillary Clinton winning. Till a few days before voting, the Japanese side was in touch with the Clinton camp to finalize dates for an Abe-Clinton “summit”, even exploring the possibility of making Abe the first foreign head of state to hold talks with “President Hillary Clinton”.

So, when Trump won, it came as a shock to many Japanese officials. After Biden won the US election in 2020, the Japanese media wasted no time in listing the so-called similarities between then Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga and Biden, including the fact that both do not drink alcohol, both love sweets and that both had, in the past, worked as “number two” in the government.

Four years ago, because of the Abe government’s close ties with Trump, Tokyo worried that the Biden administration would alienate Japan after taking office. Four years later, it is again afraid of being seen as being too close to Biden and so offending Trump.

On the one hand, Japan worries that Trump will ask it to pay for a larger share of the US military presence in Japan. On the other hand, it is worried that Trump’s tariff policy will cause new shocks to Japan’s foreign trade.

However, what worries Japan the most is that it may be “abandoned” by the US in its China policy. Japan is worried that if Trump returns to power, the US may change Japan’s four years of strategic deployment in the Asia-Pacific region against China, and that the US may change its provocative stance on the Taiwan question.

Japan’s diplomacy always follows the baton of the United States. That is undoubtedly a great irony since Japan aspires to become a normal country.