Manila’s ill-judged course leaves it exposed to its mercenary buccaneers
United States Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo is visiting the Philippines in a bid to foster a tighter economic bond with the US’ Southeast Asian ally, which has been assigned a significant role in Washington’s “Indo-Pacific” geopolitical strategy.
Manila seems happy to oblige as it apparently hopes to not only exploit its security partnership but also boost its economic ties with the US. But Manila is also aware of its comparative disadvantages — among which are its high energy costs — when it comes to competing for US investments with its Southeast Asian neighbors. After all, it is not the only country that the US is encouraging to be an active participant in its “Indo-Pacific” strategy. Raimondo and her entourage will also visit Thailand after the Philippines.
Decision-makers in Manila are not so naive as to think they hold all the cards. So they have come up with a plan that they assume may kill two birds with one stone. Since Manila wants to exploit its defense partnerships to generate more trade and investment, Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez said of Raimondo’s visit that Manila is inviting US companies to jointly explore energy resources in the South China Sea.
And it is not just the US that Manila is hoping to bribe in this way to support its territorial appropriation in the South China Sea. As Romualdez said, “We’re working closely with our allies, not only the US but also Japan and Australia.”
This may seem a great idea to Manila as it appears to hold the promise of quenching the Philippines’ long-standing thirst for energy, bring down its energy costs, and thus improve its chances of success in the competition for foreign direct investment; while at the same time forging closer security partnerships to bolster its overreaching ambitions in the South China Sea. However, in the cold light of day Manila’s formula for energy procurement can be seen to be nothing more than a badly drawn design to attract carpetbaggers to its acquisitive schemes.
The Philippines’ desire for better energy supplies, not only to meet its growing everyday needs, but also to fuel its aspirations for foreign direct investment, is legitimate and understandable. This is especially true as the Malampaya natural gas field, the country’s most important energy source at home, is expected to run dry by the mid-to-late 2020s. Long-term reliance on imports has been an outstanding bottleneck for the Philippines’ plans to improve its domestic environment for foreign investment. And the South China Sea is believed to be home to an estimated 11 billion barrels of untapped oil. Manila has previously made tentative moves to lure in foreign enterprises to carry out exploration and development on designated offshore blocks, but by and large met with a cold shoulder, because everyone knew the risks of drilling at those contested locations.
Responding to a question about the Philippine ambassador’s remarks, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Monday said the South China Sea issue is one between China and some member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which China is working to resolve via negotiations with the countries directly involved. He urged the countries concerned not to rope in countries from outside the region to intervene in the disputes as that risks creating destabilizing volatility in the region. They should be aware that China will resolutely uphold its sovereignty, territorial integrity and maritime rights and interests.
The Philippines and its allies are “moving in a calculated way”, according to the Philippine ambassador. But this in no way mitigates the risk of conflict if it amounts to infringement on China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The calculation has a flaw in the ledger as the potential risks are greater than the imagined rewards. Although the negotiations on joint exploration stalled last year, that was the right course of action. Manila should rechart its approach to the South China Sea issue if it wants a meaningful long-term solution to its energy needs.