Subianto wins election in Indonesia
Victory for running mate Raka too; swearing-in ceremony in October
Indonesia’s election body has officially declared Prabowo Subianto, the country’s defense minister, as the winner in the Feb 14 presidential election.
The General Election Commission concluded the national vote tally on Wednesday.
Subianto’s running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, former mayor of Solo in Central Java and the eldest son of incumbent president Joko Widodo, was also declared as the winner of the vicepresidential race.
The commission’s official announcement validated the results of the quick count held in February that showed a huge lead for the Subianto-Raka duo over their two rivals. The winners will take their oath of office in October.
Their triumph is expected to result in a continuity in Widodo’s policies, analysts said.
“It is still a bit early but given his previous statements that he would be a continuity candidate, we do expect Subianto to retain (Widodo’s) policy regarding relations with China,” Nicholas Mapa, a senior economist at ING, a Dutch investment bank, said.
China is Indonesia’s biggest trading partner and Widodo, as Indonesia’s leader for the past 10 years, has sought to deepen trade cooperation between the two countries.
One of Widodo’s legacies is the China-funded high-speed railway that connects the capital city of Jakarta with West Java province. The bullet train, a first in Southeast Asia, is one of the most prominent projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.
Muhammad Habib Abiyan Dzakwan, a researcher at the Department of International Relations of the Jakarta-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that Indonesia’s foreign policy “will unlikely change” under the Subianto-Raka government.
“Under their administration, Indonesia will remain a friend with everybody else — China, the
US, Europe, Australia, and so on,” Dzakwan said, alluding to Indonesia’s bebas dan aktif (independent and active) foreign policy.
Subianto had said in previous press briefings that Indonesia’s GDP may hit 8 percent in the next three to five years, which would be a sharp rise from the 5.05 percent growth in 2023, and the official 5.3 percent GDP target for this year.
Mapa of ING said that in order to realize the 8 percent growth rate, Subianto needs to find other sources of investment.
Fiscal discipline
“He has also vowed to practice fiscal discipline while chasing this growth aspiration,” Mapa added.
Tauhid Ahmad, executive director of the Jakarta-based Institute for Development of Economics and Finance, said Subianto’s growth target may be “difficult to realize”.
“It is likely that he (Subianto) has not yet understood the main problems (faced by Indonesia),” he said.
Ahmad is cautious about the future development of the hilirisasi (mineral downstreaming) policy that Widodo has championed and which Subianto has vowed to continue under his leadership.
Ahmad cited the global market for minerals and mineral products, noting that Subianto might want to rethink about hilirisasi.
“Hilirisasi is not enough to support our economy,” he said, adding that the government might need to also focus more on other industries such as textiles, steel and furniture to achieve its growth target.
The announcement by the election commission took place amid protests from the camps of Subianto-Raka’s two rivals in the election, former provincial governors Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo. Their supporters held street demonstrations while their legal teams said they were fully prepared to lodge their complaints with the Constitutional Court about alleged electoral rigging.