China’s economy has braved obstacles in the past, and will continue to do so

Some Western politicians and institutions recently invented the “Peak China” theory, arguing that China’s development has peaked.

Despite Western countries claiming over the past decade that China’s development is disappointing and will collapse, the economy has been continually developing, even under pressure, and scaling new heights. In 2023, China’s GDP exceeded 126 trillion yuan ($17.50 trillion) and its per capita disposable income exceeded 39,218 yuan, both more than double that of 2013. China’s 5.2 percent economic growth last year is significantly higher than the 2.5 percent of the United States, 0.5 percent of the eurozone and 1.9 percent of Japan, making it an important engine for global economic growth.

Some people believe China’s total population has already peaked, and the disappearance of the “demographic dividend” will make China’s growth miracle in the past four decades unsustainable. It is true that the size and structure of China’s population have undergone major changes in recent years, but its working-age population, between 16 and 59, is still about 865 million strong, giving it one of the highest labor participation rates in the world, and labor resources are still abundant, which means China’s demographic dividend has not disappeared. More important, compared with the size of the population, the key factor affecting a country’s mediumand long-term economic growth is the quality of its population.

At present, China’s total human resources, scientific and technological people, and the total number of research and development personnel, all rank first in the world. Despite its aging population, China’s annual effective labor has been increasing, and its “demographic dividend” is transitioning to a “talent dividend”, providing a solid human foundation for its high-quality development and sustained economic growth.

Those pessimistic about China’s development also argue that US-led Western technological blockades will affect the development of China’s high-tech sector and contain its development. The fact is that since the founding of New China, it has been repeatedly blocked and suppressed by Western countries, but the Chinese people, by dint of their self-reliance, have tided over all difficulties to achieve one miracle after another. Now, with a solid material and technological foundation, can the “small yard, high fence” erected by Western countries block the pace of China’s innovation and development? Various problems will arise as China’s economy is at a critical stage of moving toward highquality development, but as long as it faces up to these problems, and introduces targeted measures, they will all be resolved.