‘Ironclad’ support a blank check for trouble if Manila takes it at face value

While Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said in an interview on Tuesday that the Philippines was not deliberately “provoking the bear” in the belief that it could “run to Big Brother” for protection if the bear was provoked, he effectively made it clear that it is in fact vice versa: the Philippines has solicited the support of its “Big Brother”, the United States, so that it can provoke China, which it views as “the bear”.

Likewise, his claim that “we must do more to defend our territory” because “the threat has grown” is on the other foot, as it is China that is having to respond to the Philippines’ US-encouraged provocations over Ren’ai Reef and Huangyan Island in the South China Sea, of which there have been at least 10 occurrences since his government took office.

It is the Philippines’ frequent provocations and spreading of disinformation to mislead the perception of the international community that have caused incidents that have escalated the tensions in the South China Sea. The latest was 34 Filipino personnel ignored China’s warnings and dissuasion and illegally landed on China’s Tiexian Reef on Thursday, according to China Coast Guard spokesperson Gan Yu. The CCG dealt with the incident according to the law.

As the Chinese Foreign Ministry has pointed out, it is the Philippines which is breaching the common understandings with China and heightening the tensions in the South China Sea by attempting to change the current status of Ren’ai Reef and make it a fait accompli, and it is the Philippines that has courted external forces to put pressure on China. It is primarily the support of the US, which is not a party to the South China Sea issue and which has no justification for intervening in the maritime issues between China and the Philippines, which has prompted Manila to have the gumption to renege on the commitments it has made to Beijing.

The Joe Biden administration’s role as the agent provocateur behind Manila’s reckless moves was put in the spotlight the same day as Marcos was interviewed, when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken promised the US would “stand by our ironclad defense commitments” to the Philippines in the event of Filipino forces, ships or aircraft coming under an armed attack anywhere in the South China Sea.

In another volte-face of the facts, Blinken accused Beijing of actions “that threaten our common vision for a free, open Indo-Pacific”, when it is Manila and Washington, which are trying to exploit the territorial disputes in the waters for their own agendas, that are guilty of disturbing the peace in the South China Sea.

That the Biden administration is goading Manila to “provoke the bear” for its own delight was reinforced by the White House announcing, also on Tuesday, that Biden will host a summit with the Philippine leader and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in April. Speaking at a news conference on Tuesday, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said the meeting will provide a boost to “the free and open international order based on the rule of law” indicating that Tokyo is eager to join the bear-baiting games of Manila and Washington.

Marcos also said in his interview on Tuesday that, “We’re just trying to feed our people”, but the promised rewards for being the US’ proxy are likely to remain just a pie in the sky given that the previous pledges of money the administration has made here, there and everywhere that have failed to materialize.

The Philippines should handle its maritime disputes with China as it has pledged to do, through dialogue and consultation, and advance practical maritime cooperation with it so as to keep the South China Sea peaceful and stable.