Economic Digest

IT IS IMPERATIVE FOR THE U.S. TO RAISE INTEREST RATES IN JUNE

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In general increasing interest rate include reducing money supply, suppressin­g consumptio­n, inflation, encouragin­g deposits, slowing market speculatio­n etc. In the other way of speaking, increasing interest rates can improve the exchange rate of domestic or regional currencies against other currencies indirectly. The US dollar rate hike will bring certain influence to stock market, bond market, market and commodity market. The US Federal Reserve announced earlier this year that it will raises interest rates no more than four times in 2018. In March, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates once. After the rate hike, the performanc­e of various economic datas in the United States rose steadily. The employment data performed well. The unemployme­nt rate remained to be low, and the inflation rate slightly more than 2%. Market believes that in June rate hike can reach to 97%. If interest rates are raise in June, the United States has raised interest rates twice in the current year. But will the Federal Reserve increase the rate hike forecast this year will not be witnessed. The US dollar index was reached to the low point 88.25 at the beginning of this year, and has raise to the highest 94.25 since the author's writing. The main reason for such significan­t increased due to non US currencies have fallen sharply in the past few months, resulting in a rise in the dollar index, which has led to a fall in spot gold, which finally fell through $ 1300 / ounce in May 15 and near $ 1,280 / ounce, breaking the sharp volatility of spot gold of the first quarter. In recent years, gold price fluctuatio­n has a unique seasonal pattern and has long been one of the commonly used indicators in the futures market. Since 2008, for 10 consecutiv­e years from June to September, the average price of gold has increased by 10%. Since 2015, the price of gold has risen after the United States raised interest rates several times. If the June rate increase meets the above two points, the expected price of gold Rose about 6- 8%. Investors may wish to refer to it, thank you all.

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