Design Trends
Design guru Glynn Kerr on the fate of new twowheeler concepts ― some of which reach fruition while some others head straight for oblivion
It Was a tasK i’D BEEn PUtting off for somE timE. my office storage closet is a good size, but it was filled to the ceiling with magazine issues i’ve contributed to in some way, plus sundry photographic equipment, printing supplies, and the like. it’s also the official hiding place for christmas and birthday gifts, which means everyone is under instruction to keep out. Useful. the magazines have been piling up, two volumes deep on every shelf, and had reached the point where there was literally no room for any further copies. there was nothing for it but to go through the lot, keeping the odd magazine of special value, but reducing the rest to just the applicable pages. in and around my other duties, it has taken over a month. Motorcycle Consumer News and Bike India were spared the cull. going through all these magazines page by page, i was reminded of the prolific output of new two-wheeled proposals that have appeared over the last 30 years, many of which disappeared without trace shortly after their début. in some cases,
that was a blessing for us all, while others deserved a better fate. knowing the level of hard work, money, and pure dedication that goes into every new project, good or bad, it shows the return on that investment is far from assured.
remember the 2003 Laverda sfC1000? You’d be forgiven if you don’t, because it appeared as a prototype at the 2003 milan eICma with dodgy styling and in track-only form. It resurfaced a month later at the paris show, complete with street equipment, including lights that were apparently influenced by welding goggles, after which it was never seen again. other than being painted orange, there was little that linked it to its earlier 750 namesake, neither through its aprilia V-twin engine, nor the convoluted bodywork. whether I could have done better (I was initially promised the contract, which was then diverted to another designer) is moot, although aprilia, Laverda’s new owners, may have considered the model too close to the tuono for comfort in any case. either way, it was a sad end for a truly great brand and its historically famous model.
the sfC is just one of thousands of hopefuls that emerged with great fanfare, only to fade into oblivion shortly afterwards. whatever happened to the petronas fp1, created as a homologation special for Carl fogarty’s sbk race team? or the
260-hp ford Cosworth-engined münch mammut 2000? the 2007 Crocker C4? the eight-litre V10 dodge tomahawk? all had pretensions of production runs, albeit limited ones, but all went south pretty quickly.
Various studies have been undertaken to research what percentage of new products fail in the marketplace and why. the results suggest a failure rate of between 70 and 95 per cent, depending on whose study is most accurate. presumably, other factors come into play, too, such as geographic location, the target audience (age, gender, income levels...), and the type of product in question. so, how much those figures are applicable to motorcycles is unclear.
whatever the nature, it’s a fact that introducing a new product to the marketplace is fraught with challenges, including the unpredictable nature of customers. motorcycles are arguably more predictable than many other products, because, being a relatively conservative group, the buyers’ requirements and expectations are pretty clear. that’s why so many companies produce very predictable models. nothing wrong with that; it’s a savvy fiscal policy. but it doesn’t move the game forwards and it’s down to a few
manufacturers that appeal to the more edgy sector of the market that demands novelty, revolutionary looks, and the latest technology to push the envelope.
the hope is that the first buyers, the “Innovators” (buyers who welcome new directions, have the confidence to overlook peer pressure, and the money to shrug off the occasional failure — typically, only 2.5 per cent of the total market) — will be followed by the “early adopters” and then the “early majority”. when the product has been sufficiently endorsed by these groups, it will, in turn, sell to the “Late majority”, and finally the “Laggards” (everett rogers,
Diffusion of Innovations, 1962). Clearly, it’s vital to get the early groups to participate, because without them, the last 50 per cent cannot exist. fortunately, being highly emotive items, the purchase decision of a motorcycle is often made from a higher degree of emotion over rationale than most products, although the proportion varies with the category of motorcycle. a sports bike or chopper-style will be more influenced by pure desire than a tourer or commuter, for which practicality will be more important and the final decision more considered.
of course, potential buyers of any new product have to be made aware that it exists, which usually involves extensive and expensive advertising. but the good thing with motorcycles from a manufacturer’s viewpoint is that most of them are highly exciting and enthusiast-oriented products. there is a strong and passionate following from potential customers, who actively seek information on the latest models by reading articles in magazines or online and by attending motorcycle shows or visiting dealer showrooms. manufacturers of office furniture don’t have it so easy.
public interest doesn’t always translate into sales, though. the hub-centre steering on Yamaha’s gts fascinated show-goers on its 1992 début and everyone just had to turn the bars to see the linkage in operation — myself included, and I had been part of the actual design team! but the high price helped dissuade people from buying it and although the model has a small but dedicated following today, it failed to penetrate the “early adopters” group at the time and the venture failed. despite this, Yamaha have persevered with exploration of the “funny front end” strategy and produced the niken, which may see better results. If so, this can be partly attributed to generally favourable road tests, which could help early buyers overcome any initial hesitancy over the twin front-wheel set-up. such reports act as “Change agents”, which help influence the buyer’s acceptance or rejection in the ultimate decision-making process.
Why any new product fails has been analysed in numerous studies. The conclusions are mostly down to a lack of preparation for marketing and a poor understanding of the target customer group
High volume manufacturers will mostly tend towards safer designs with a more predictable sales pattern. Honda’s style is typically more on the conservative side, with refined and relatively understated designs that avoid deterring sales through lack of customer acceptance. that said, Honda have been one of the leading innovators, unafraid of introducing new technology that has not always been commercially successful (turbos, oval pistons...). they can also be acknowledged for attempting to cultivate a unique customer group, through atypical designs such as the nC700 range, although mass-market was clearly still the aim. the decidedly not understated dn-01 and Vultus scooters were even more audacious ventures aimed at finding new customers, from which we can conclude that Honda’s strategy is mostly mainstream with the occasional wildcard thrown in to see what the market will accept. Honda are large enough to withstand the odd failure and having a car division to help support it is also helpful.
smaller companies need to offer something more unique and so their risk factor is considerably higher, combined with a less stable financial situation. but whatever the situation, any new product that aims beyond the predictable depends on solid innovation, investment, market understanding, and dedication. and then there’s the aspect of luck. for example, all the right ingredients could be in place, but timing isn’t always on your side. the foggy petronas failed because its engine, developed for the 900-cc class, couldn’t compete when the rules were amended to one-litre by the time the bike was ready to race. the best place in the championship was 21st in the hands of steve martin (not the comedian, which would explain it) and unreliability plagued the bike from the outset. neither of those factors were a good advertisement for the company.
why any new product fails has been analysed in numerous studies. the conclusions are mostly down to a lack of preparation for marketing and a poor understanding of the target customer group (although as nearly all of the studies were conducted by marketing companies, this result, perhaps, isn’t surprising). the focus is inevitably on the initial development, often done under pressure of time or financial resources, followed by manufacture. Here, motorcycles are at a disadvantage, because funds are frequently limited and the necessary refinement and testing can be insufficient before the product hits the market (bimota V-due anyone?). all it takes are a few negative reviews and those early buyers will reject it. and as we have seen, without them, there’s no main market.