Rains might stay back for another 15 days

The southwest monsoon is likely to stay in the country for a few more days, delaying its withdrawal by at least a fortnight. The latest update by the India Meteorological Department has predicted normal to above normal rainfall over most parts of east, northeast, central and peninsular India over the next two weeks. The monsoon season is likely to end with a seasonal average rainfall deficit of two to three per cent against normal.

The southwest monsoon in the country might delay its withdrawal by at least a fortnight, according to the latest update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The department forecast above-normal rain in most past of east, central and peninsular India, as well as the Northeast.

The monsoon is slated to officially end on Friday.

The season’s average rainfall would have a deficit of two to three per cent from the normal, meaning the IMD forecast of the rains this year being 106 per cent of the long period average would be off the mark.

Karnataka, meanwhile, became the first state to declare a drought this year. This is the third year in a row the state has experienced a drought.

The state declared 68 taluks in 22 districts as drought-affected, including 16 taluks in the Cauvery basin, from Mysuru, Mandya and Monsoon from June 1 to September 28 (in millimeters) Region Actual Normal % Departure North-West 581.9 611.9 Central India 1,024.2 968.5 South Peninsular 654.2 703.9 East and NE India 1,265.4 1,424.2 Country as a whole 853.9 879.6 Chamarajanagar districts. Last year, it has declared 100 taluks as drought-hit.

Karnataka has sought an assistance of ~2,260 crore from the central government to fight drought. The drought-hit districts in the state had received at least 20 per cent deficient rainfall till middle of this month. IMD’s updated forecast was made in June, with a model error of plus/minus four per cent. From June 1 to September 28, India received 853.9 mm rainfall, which was just three per cent below normal. Most weathermen said by Friday, another per cent could be wiped off from the deficit.

Northwest India, with grain producing states such as Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, would have a deficit of five per cent. In central India, there would be a surplus of six per cent.

In the south, the monsoon would end with a deficit of seven per cent, while in the east and the Northeast, the deficit could be 11 per cent.

“The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon has been definitely delayed at least till first week of next month. This should aid planting of rabi crops as residual moisture in soil would be good, but could also help late-sown kharif crops,” IMD Director General K J Ramesh told Business Standard.