Is water our weakest link? INFLEXION POINTS

If India has 17 per cent of the global population and only four per cent of the world’s available freshwater resources, should we throw up our hands in frustration? For each Indian, 1,116 cubic metres of renewable internal freshwater is available annually — low but not fatal. But we swing between crisisdriven despondency and a general apathy. We forget that water is the weakest link in almost every major mission and target set for India.

Pressure on water resources will rise with growth. In order to manage the pressures, India must first recognisethenatureofthecompetition.AccordingtotheUN,global freshwater withdrawals are expected to increase by 50 per cent between 2000 and 2050, but maximum increase in withdrawals will occur in emerging economies. Onefifth of the world’s aquifers are overexploited, many concentrated in East, South and West Asia. India is centrally dependent on the “third pole”: The Himalayan-Hindu-Kush region spanning eight countries, 54,252 glaciers and 10 major river systems.

But challenges relate less to tensions over transboundary waters; water management within borders matters more. Although agriculture accounts for well over 80 per cent of water use, there will not be a smooth shift to industrial and commercial sectors. The linear trajectory of productivity increase and growth in agriculture shifting to industry and services, as witnessed elsewhere, is unlike India’s pattern of development. All sectors in India will grow, resulting in commensurate inter-sectoral (and interstate) competition for water (both quantity and quality).

Secondly, understand the energy-water nexus. Energy is central to water supply. Farmers hedge against poor quality power supply by over-pumping groundwater. This results in lower water productivity, lower incomes and farmer dissatisfaction, which compound the political economy of low electricity tariffs, poor finances of utilities and continuing poor electricity service. The success of the Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) depends on breaking this vicious cycle.

Energy used to pump water in urban areas will also increase. Per unit energy consumption for urban water supply in India is 0.3 kWh/m3 against 0.51 in the US. Further, end-use energy intensity for drinking water was more than double that for wastewater treatment, a 2013 study of 16 Indian cities found. Developed countries display an inverse pattern. As the Swachh Bharat and Smart Cities missions gain momentum, significantly greater energy will be needed for water and sanitation and wastewater treatment: Water and energy efficiency are imperatives for urbanising India.

Water is also critical for energy supply. The International Energy Agency had estimated that the power sector would account for 95 per cent of additional water withdrawals in India between 2010 and 2035. Currently, water consumption for power generation in India is about 4-5 m3/h/MW. New guidelines impose limits for new plants (2.5m3/h/MW) and existing ones(3.5 m3/h/MW). Our energy choices will impact water demand. Whereas thermal power is threatened in many regions by stressed water resources, our low-carbon development objectives (via gas, nuclear or concentrated solar power) would also need less water-intensive cooling techologies.

Thirdly, acknowledge the impact of unsustainable water management. The crisis in groundwater lies at the heart of the challenge. Indian agriculture has become a groundwater economy, fuelled by more than 19 million electricand10milliondieselpumpsets.InHaryana,Punjab andRajasthan,annualgroundwaterdemandwellexceeds availability;otherstatesareapproachingthreshold-breaching limits. India consumes about 251 billion cubic metres of groundwater annually, against 112 in China and the US. As Make in India gathers pace, pressure on groundwater resourcesfromindustrywillrise:Industryconsumes26per cent of groundwater in China; only two per cent in India. Shifting demand patterns across sectors must create new opportunities for efficiency improvements.

Is the imperative recognised? Just five states – Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Odisha, and Gujarat – hold 57 per cent of reservoir storage capacity. Building groundwater storage capacity across India could partially ameliorate this situation, for short-term fluctuations in precipitation and longer-term resource pressures. Fixing agricultural price signals, which distort farmers’ choices and cropping practices, is also necessary.

Fourthly, analysefutures. How will these complexities evolve? Will water impact India’s food security more or its energy security? Will water security be impacted more by political decisions, engineering choices, or environmental change? NITI Aayog, along with four thinktanks, has started analysing how the power sector would beimpactedbyemissionsreductiontargetsandwaterconsumption limits. This kind of research must be broadened (for more inter-sectoral interactions) and deepened (for region-specific policy options).

Fifthly,mitigatestrategicthreats. Climate change is a threat multiplier. Thanks to population growth alone, approximately 750 million people in South Asia will face extremewatershortage(1.8billionfacingchronicshortage) by 2050.This is compounded when, on a high emissions pathway, the incidence of extreme drought affecting cropland could increase by about 50 per cent in South Asia. Yet, what is now a“30-year flood” could become six times more likely in the Ganga basin. Coastal flooding will impact power plants, new cities, ports, railways, etc. All infrastructureinvestmentsmustbemandatedtoassessclimate resilience. Alongside annual economic surveys, India needs periodic climate risk assessments, which can be reported to Parliament.

Water is the ultimate resource. Its impact on energy, agriculture, urbanisation, infrastructure, manufacturing and human development is pervasive. Yet, we fail to pay strategic attention. India is already enduring a crisis of mismanagement from the past. Are we risking the future, too, through a failure of imagination?