Demand for auto-gear commercial vehicles may go up
Switching to Bharat Stage-IV (BS-IV) emission norms is likely to boost the adoption of automated manual transmission (AMT) technology among India’s commercial vehicle (CV) industry. The sector expects at least 10 per cent of the truck and bus industry to shift to AMT.
This is because the AMT technology (which basically implies that the driver does not need to change gears manually) needs electronic engines and BS-IV vehicles sport electronic engines. At present, the size of the 1 tonne and above trucking industry is roughly around 400,000 units per annum, and this is expected to grow to 600,000 in the next three to five years. For buses, it is around 90,000 units per annum at present.
Market research analyst Technavio says the market looks more bullish in the case of medium and heavy commercial vehicles as they are used in longer trips and a small price hike due to the additional cost of AMT can be recouped by their higher fuel economy.
“There has been a lot of developments in this space in the past two-three years which makes us believe that almost all the original equipment manufacturers and major AMT suppliers like WABCO, Eaton and ZF are looking up to this segment as one of the major growth drivers. Although the market for AMT in this segment was close to 5,300 units in 2015 , we estimate the growth rate to be close to 26 per cent in medium & heavy commercial vehicles during 2015- 2020. Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland have been the frontrunners in adopting AMT in their lineup,” said Technavio analyst Praveen Kumar.
Leading CV player Tata Motors, which saw its market share in the space dip to 44.37 percent in FY 16 from 47.2 per cent a year back, is now trying hard to get back to a more than 50 per cent share in the CV business. The company plans to launch new AMT based products.
“At Tata Motors, we constantly engage with our customers and other stakeholders to develop and integrate new and future ready technologies for our range of commercial vehicles. In line with this objective, we plan to launch new AMT based products. A formal announcement will be made in due course.”
Vinod Aggarwal, managing director and CEO of Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles (VECV), said while the initital cost of acquisition of an AMT variant is higher by 8-10 per cent, if one looks long term, fuel cost savings is a huge plus for AMT variants. “Fuel costs account for roughly 50 per cent of the operating costs, while acquisition cost is around 20 per cent. AMT variants are highly fuel efficient, and hence, the long term savings is higher.”
VECV has launched its AMTequipped range of medium duty trucks and 9-16 tonne buses. It aims to target the state transport corporations for AMT buses. Aggarwal claimed at least 10 per cent of the market can be expected to shift to AMT variants over the next few years.
Kumar, too, felt that in medium and heavy commercial vehicles, the market for AMT variants is estimated to be 35,000-40,000 units by 2020.