Who will be the Humpty Dumpty?

... And who will take the fall: Yeddyurappa or his rival in the BJP, Eshwarappa, or the Congress?

Is the Karnataka unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the throes of a caste war?

The day (October 2016) former chief minister B S Yeddyurappa was acquitted of charges of corruption by the Special Court, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), there were widespread celebrations. “Satyameva Jayate,” tweeted Yeddyurappa. Hardly surprising, considering the gravity of the charges made by the CBI in the case, which had cost Yeddyurappa his chief ministership in 2011. The CBI chargesheet against Yeddyurappa, his sons B Y Raghavendra and B Y Vijayendra and sonin-law Sohan Kumar, a Bellary-based private steel company, and the Shimoga-based Prerana Trust run by the family of Yeddyurappa alleged abuse of official position and corruption. This led to Yeddyurappa being hauled off to jail for three weeks before he was granted bail. The CBI case was a result of an investigation by the then Lok Ayukta of Karnataka, Santosh Hegde. In its chargesheet, the CBI had alleged criminal conspiracy, cheating, forgery and corruption, involving kickbacks to the tune of around ~40 crore. The court exonerated all 13 named in the chargesheet.

Yeddyurappa was naturally elated at his exoneration. But even before that, BJP President Amit Shah addressed a public meeting in Karnataka where he referred to Yeddyurappa as the “chief minister in waiting”. The BJP leader cited this reference to milk the situation for all it was worth, not bothering about the possibility that it might cause heartburn.

And cause heartburn it did.

Politics abhors a vacuum. With Yeddyurappa absent after his jail term and the CBI probe, others saw a chance to dominate the power space. One such individual was his former deputy K S Eshwarappa, also an ex-state unit president and currently the Leader of the Opposition in the state council.

Karnataka politics, like the rest of India, is also identity-driven. The issue of caste has always been present, though region and language have occasionally assumed greater centrality. The two dominant castes —Vokkaliga and Lingayat — have dominated competitive politics, with other castes supplementing one or the other, from time to time. The emergence, growth and development of Ramakrishna Hegde, a Brahmin, as chief minister and the third factor in Karnataka’s caste politics may have been an aberration, if we take a long view.

But the BJP was faithful to the power script and propelled Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat, centre stage when it became clear that Vokkaliga domination — led by H D Deve Gowda had caused a caste polarisation. Although the party’s top leadership realised that Yeddyurappa could cause problems, it remained steadfast — even if it was not completely convinced — that Yeddyurappa was the only leader who had a pan-Karnataka appeal. Accordingly, he was made chief of the state BJP unit in April 2016 even before he was legally exonerated of corruption charges — and he proceeded to pack it with his supporters.

It was with some alarm, therefore, that the party took note of the formation of the Sangolli Rayanna Brigade. The anxiety was on several counts: Eshwarappa is from the Kuruba (shepherd) caste, considered in the lower rungs of socially backward communities of Karnataka; he gave the call to form the organisation, which held a huge meeting. The biggest meeting was held in North Karnataka, in a place called Kudalasangama, which the BJP considers its area on 26th January this year, the death anniversary of Sangolli Rayanna, an 18th century warrior of the Kuruba community.

In a sense what Eshwarappa was trying to do was what the Congress had tried to do: sideline the dominant ‘political castes” like Lingayats and Vokkaligas by an alliance of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and the lower rungs of the backward classes in an ati-pichchade (most backward) combination of the kind Nitish Kumar put together in Bihar. This would challenge the numerical hegemony of the Vokkaligas and Lingayats and the social dominance of the Brahmins.

The subtext of launching the “Brigade” was also a struggle for regional supremacy: Both Yeddyurappa and Eshwarappa belong to Shimoga and their rivalry — for property as well as political space — in that area is well known.

The war between supporters of Yediyurappa and the rest in the BJP had been simmering. It spilled out into the open last month, causing the central leadership to take harsh, and what it thought was even-handed action against both groups. Two supporters of each faction were relieved of their party responsibilities.

But the fires have not been tamped down. Even as the central party rushed national general secretary, P Muralidhar Rao, to Bengaluru, Eshwarappa stayed put in Shimoga, coming to Bengaluru late in the evening. He did not meet Rao. Nor did Yeddyurappa.

Coming as it does after the BJP’s loss in two Assembly by-elections — Nanjangud and Gundlupet — there is concern that the party could be heading towards snatching defeat from the jaws of victory: Under the Congress regime, Karnataka has achieved little by way of governance and the middle class in the state “is enchanted by Narendra Modi” a Congress leader said. The two by-elections were monitored extremely closely by Chief Minister Siddaramiah himself and the Congress victory could be a flash in the pan, party leaders add. But the mood in the ruling party is upbeat at the most recent evidence of cracks in the BJP citadel. The question is, can the BJP Humpty Dumpty be put together in the next 12 months?