The Vaghela conundrum for Congress

Will the party accept his demand of sole control of state affairs and selection of candidates or risk letting him cross over to BJP?

From walking out of a high-level meeting chaired by Congress Vicepresident Rahul Gandhi to unfollowing him and other party leaders on social media, Shankersinh Vaghela seems to have made himself heard within the party.

Just a few months ahead of the Gujarat Assembly polls, the former chief minister of the state and former Union minister, also known as Bapu, has created a stir within the party through his recent actions. Last Sunday, Vaghela unfollowed Gandhi along with the party president’s political secretary, Ahmed Patel, and Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCC) President Bharatsinh Solanki on Twitter.

While it is known that Vaghela has been demanding exclusive control over the party’s state affairs, especially for poll preparation including candidate selection, he has been playing down his ambitions.

Vaghela told the media on Monday that he had contested several elections in the past and now wished to fight for the people of Gujarat. He added that he would decide whether to contest the Assembly elections due in December.

Despite denying that he was trying to arm-twist the party into accepting his demands, party insiders consider it an erosion of his goodwill. Vaghela maintains he has “always lived with self respect and never played pressure politics”.

Although Vaghela and Solanki both deny a rift, differences of opinion have emerged in the recent past. It all goes back to their origins.

Vaghela claims to be a Thakur, a non-Other Backward Class (OBC) community while Solanki is an OBC. Dalits and tribals put together, Gujarat has a significant OBC population, something the Congress cannot afford to ignore. This could be one reason the party high command has been largely silent on the supposedly feuding cadre in the state.

This apart, Solanki hails from a family long associated with the Congress — his father was former Gujarat CM Madhavsinh Solanki — while Vaghela has his roots in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This could have fuelled rumours of Vaghela moving to the BJP if his demands were not met by the Congress. So what has he been demanding? “He is pressurising the high command to place him exclusively at the helm of affairs in selection of candidates and other decisions in the state,” sources in the GPCC said. “At a time when there has not been much movement on the ground (ahead of elections), this is worrisome.”

By his own admission, Vaghela has been seeking early declaration of candidates. “I had sought this last year and I ask this even now,” he said recently.

According to party insiders, Vaghela has been demanding autonomy to select candidates to field in the Assembly elections, even as he categorically denies any intention to project himself as a CM candidate. Political observers, however, say the implication in both the cases is the same.

“If he can select MLAs then those MLAs will elect him as chief minister. Both Vaghela and Solanki will try to select people close to them,” observed Achyut Yagnik, a political analyst.

While traditionalists in the party want the high command to calls the shots in Gujarat, being a veteran, Vaghela wants to manage the elections this time locally with the help of election strategist Prashant Kishor, say party insiders.

Addressing party members at an IT cell meet, Solanki took a dig at this demand when he said: “Someone says PK is coming, as in Prashant Kishor. But I say that you all are way more intelligent than PK.”

While party insiders do not rule out Vaghela’s move, Solanki has clarified that his colleague does not wish to join the BJP. Party sources said Vaghela could dent the Congress’ chances if he chose to join the BJP.

“Bapu has strong support on the ground, especially in the Saurashtra region, which is crucial for any party,” a party member said on condition of anonymity. “If he moves, a decent number of candidates would go with him. The Congress cannot afford that. Let’s see what the high command does in the days ahead.”

Yagnik said the party high command might take no step for now. Nevertheless, the Vaghela-Solanki divide is palpable.

Congress workers are also disoriented due to lack of ground work ahead of elections, even as the ruling party has been firing a new policy salvo at intervals. “Everybody (in the local leadership) agrees that nothing is going on in terms of ground work ahead of elections and that he (Vaghela) should not be given the helm of affairs,” said party sources.

Will the party high command give in? Will it be too late for the Congress to regain lost ground as the polls come nearer?