Modi, Trump likely to get down to business right away
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi crosses the Atlantic on Saturday night for his first meeting with Donald Trump, the US President who has been in office for only five months, he will be tempted to reflect on his first meeting with Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, in the White House. The roles of the Prime Minister and the President were reversed then: Modi had been in office for only four months on September 29, 2014, when the two men met. Obama had been about half way into his second and final term, just as Modi is now slightly more than half way into his current term. It is now forgotten amid the Indo-US lovefest that followed in that meeting’s wake, that the unpredictability of their first encounter in the East Wing of the White House over a ‘private’ dinner attended by 18 men and women was no less than the White House summit, which will take place on Monday. Few people are aware even today that only weeks prior to Modi’s visit in 2014, Obama was asked what he thought of the new Indian Prime Minister. Obama’s answer was just one sentence, so characteristic of the man who occupied the most powerful political office in the world for eight years without any drama. “My name is Barack ‘Hussein’ Obama,” was all that he said in a reply to the question on Modi. Any misgivings the Indians had about the chemistry between O ba ma and Mo di quickly disappeared as the two men hit it off at their first meeting. Mo di could be thinking tonight on board Air India One that he and Trump could very well repeat the conversation that he and Ob am a had in September 2014.
Obama began the conversation with Modi in the East Wing by remarking that he faced intense resistance when he came into office in 2009 and tried to change things in Washington. The same is true of Trump, perhaps even more so than for Obama. What Modi said in response to Obama, he could repeat to Trump, that he faced similar difficulties when he came from Gujarat to New Delhi as an outsider.
After being in office for three years, Modi could now additionally give advice to Trump on how to overcome resistance from entrenched forces and the deep state, the advice Modi took from Obama 45 months ago. Trump needs such advice today much more than Modi needed, when he assumed office. It is an insult to Modi’s intelligence and to Trump’s penchant for success to suggest that their White House meeting on Monday will be a “get to know” meeting as commonly suggested in public discourse in India. An era in diplomacy when leaders got to know each other when they met for a summit is long gone. Thanks to modern technology and the pervasive nature of the social media, Trump and Modi already know each other well. More likely than not, they will get down to business right away instead of acquainting themselves with each other. It is in Trump’s instinct to do so. Besides, they are already reasonably acquainted with one another from three long telephone conversations, which were no chit chats but substantive in content.
Most important of all, what lends optimism to Monday’s meeting is that Trump’s business experience in India, although not exhaustive, has been good. Just as Modi continues to use Gujarat and his experience as chief minister as an important reference point in conversations with foreign leaders, Trump’s attitude to foreign countries is determined by his business experience in those countries.
Although there has been a lot of sound and fury in India about Trump’s desire to make changes to the H-1B visa programme, the hard fact on the ground is that the new US President has much less reason to gripe about India than about many other countries that matter to America. Trump is convinced that the Europeans and the Japanese are free riders on American wealth, generosity and policies, but not India.
Modi could be thinking tonight on board Air India One that he and Trump could very well repeat the conversation that he and Obama had in September 2014
In that context, New Delhi is fortunate that it is not an ally of Washington. If it were, Trump would have found reason to complain about unfavourable agreements, skewed treaty negotiations and an absence of level-playing field, all of which made the US a loser in his view. Trump is aware that India is not China and that is already showing in the Trump administration’s foreign policy where cause and effect tend to favour India. For those in New Delhi and Washington who will be tasked to follow up on what their Prime Minister and the President discuss on Monday, this is both an opportunity and a challenge.
The preparations which have gone into Modi’s meetings in Washington offer a clue. The Indian side was hesitant initially to fix the Prime Minister’s meeting with American CEO’s on Sunday. The weekend is sacrosanct in the US, more so for heads of companies like Apple or Amazon who will be at Sunday’s roundtable with Modi at the Willard Intercontinental hotel in the US capital.
But requests from American big business for participating in the roundtable kept pouring in and the Indian embassy had to cut off the attendees at 20 so that there would be meaningful interaction between the CEOs and the Prime Minister. None of the CEOs who want to meet Modi have any plans to scale down their investment plans or interest in India, notwithstanding Trump’s “America First” policy. Such confidence in India is a good augury for Indo-US relations as Modi arrives in Washington.