Towards a clean energy workforce INFLEXION POINTS
The current median age in India is 27.6 years. Over the next 20-25 years, about 600 million additional people will join the workforce. Many of the sectors, which traditionally accounted for large employment, are now adding fewer jobs year-on-year. Employment in public sector enterprises has decreased from a peak of 1.49 million in 2009-10 to 1.23 million in 2015-16. In Coal India, one of the country’s largest employers, average daily employment has declined from 370,000 to 350,000 between 2010 and 2014. Automation is going to hit annual job growth in almost all existing industries, whether agriculture, construction, textiles or IT. India needs new sources and new types of jobs.
The future of jobs looks different from the past. The shape of enterprises will change, requiring a more nimble and mobile workforce. Many services will be delivered through decentralised channels. And new industries will need systems of lifelong learning, in order to adapt to rapid changes in technology and create avenues for employment over the long run.
Renewable energy is on a rapid growth trajectory in India. Solar capacity increased from less than 20 megawatts (Mw) in 2010 to above 12,000 Mw (March 2017). During this period, annual deployment increased exponentially from 8 Mw in 2010 to 5,500 Mw in 2016. In fact, in the last three years, investments in the power sector have been primarily in renewables, accompanied by sharp falls in solar and wind tariffs and increasing investor confidence. Annual deployments are likely to increase further. Yet, little attention is given to the employment potential in renewable energy.
In February 2015, the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) had projected that India’s 160,000 Mw of solar and wind targets would generate about 1.3 million full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs. The project deployment lifecycle includes business development, design and pre-construction, construction and commissioning, and O&M. These jobs are further segmented into technical, financial, legal and regulatory due diligence for business development, preparing engineering designs in the design phase, erecting mounting structures, wind towers, etc. during the construction phase, and regular O&M activities. Most jobs fall in the semi-skilled and unskilled categories.
But there is a difference between FTE jobs and a permanent workforce. This is because not all activities require a person to be employed throughout the year. Many jobs are one-time, especially during the initial three phases of the project deployment cycle where employees move from one project to another, as each phase lasts for less than a year. O&M, by contrast, provides full-time jobs through the year.
What matters, ultimately, is not just workers employed in renewable energy but the potential size of a renewable energy workforce. In the latest CEEWNRDC study, Greening India’s Workforce: Gearing Up for Expansion of Solar and Wind Power in India, we surveyed nearly 50 companies representing solar developers (both utility-scale and rooftop solar), wind developers, engineering, procurement and construction contractors and solar manufacturers. To date, more than 56,000 people are employed in solar and wind (over 21,000 workers were added in 2016-17) energy sectors. In 2017-18, another 25,000 people will join the industry. We estimate that 1.3 million FTE jobs will translate into a workforce of 330,000 people in project development over the next five years, if India achieved its solar and wind energy goals.
The greatest potential for the renewables workforce lies in smaller, decentralised projects. Per Mw, rooftop projects create 24.7 jobs, compared to 3.4 jobs in utility-scale solar and 1.27 jobs in wind. The seven times greater potential in rooftop projects means that 238,000 people could be employed in this segment. Another 58,000 workers will find jobs in utility-scale solar and 34,000 in wind energy.
Decentralised energy also increases the potential for creating jobs locally, giving opportunities to local entrepreneurs or for recruiting workers from near project sites. The construction phase of renewable energy projects constitutes 80 per cent of the total job potential, which could be locally sourced. Every state has potential for jobs in solar (maximum in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, and Gujarat). Wind sector employment is concentrated in seven states (Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh). A state’s share in total renewables employment, eventually, depends on its ambitions.
In addition, new jobs could be created to manufacture solar photovoltaic modules, solar PV installation structures, wind turbines, towers, wind blades, etc. Existing manufacturing industries, which supply balance of plant equipment (transformers, inverters, cables and wires) for solar and wind plants will also provide employment to cater to the growing renewables sector. We estimate that domestic solar module manufacturing could provide employment to another 45,000 people, if India could increase annual module manufacturing capacity to 17,000 Mw.
The employment potential in renewable energy (based on current targets) is just a glimpse. As the sector expands, new employment segments will emerge, such as renewable energy scheduling and forecasting, grid integration and balancing, energy storage, and re-powering and recycling of existing plants. The shape of enterprises is changing, as is the nature of jobs. Renewable energy could be at the forefront of new forms of job creation in India. It will need greater attention to decentralised service provision, continuing skilling, and increasing ambitions for clean energy — nationwide and within each state.