June ends with 4% surplus rain
Significantly less than average downpour in some parts
The southwest monsoon season began on a positive note for most parts of the country, with June recording almost four per cent excess rain than the normal.
However, showers over Jharkhand, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, eastern Uttar Pradesh and parts of Karnataka were 20-50 per cent less than the average in the first month of the four-month season that will end in September. Which means these regions could stare at a drought-like situation unless the monsoon becomes active over there in the next few weeks.
On a cumulative basis, the southwest monsoon in June was 52 per cent more than normal over northwest India, five per cent more than normal over central India, eight per cent excess over peninsular India but 18 per cent less than normal over east and northeast India.
The rains entered the mainland on May 30 and are expected to cover the entire country in the next 45 days. The official India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that rain in July would be normal at 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA); in August, it would be 99 per cent of the LPA. These are the two wettest months in the season.
“As of now, the monsoon seems on track to deliver a good performance in July and August as per our prediction and so far there is no adverse movement,” D S Pai, director of Long Range Forecast in IMD, told Business Standard.
Good showers so far in some parts have boosting sowing in the main kharif crops, including pulses, which had showed some slackness in the initial stages. However, a final conclusion will come only when sowing is complete in all parts.
It is felt that many farmers might switch from pulses to cotton and other crops, due to a sharp fall in prices of the former this year. The retail price of most pulses have dropped below the Centre-determined Minimum Support Price (MSP), following a record harvest in the 2016-17 crop year, estimated at over 22 million tonnes, a little over six mt more than the previous year.
“So far, the performance of the southwest monsoon and sowing of kharif crops has instilled hope of over three per cent farm growth in 2017-18, except if there is a big switch in area from pulses to cotton in the coming weeks,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings.
The area under cotton has risen 142 per cent from the same period last year. That under rice was almost the same as last year till Friday, that of coarse cereals was 7.6 per cent more and of oilseeds was 8.65 per cent less.