Monsoon may take a break in July-end

Lull phase beyond a fortnight could impact standing crops

The southwest monsoon might enter a brief lull phase by the end of July or early August, giving a much-needed respite to areas reeling under floods and excess showers. However, if the lull extends beyond 14 days, it might start harming the standing crops, particularly oilseeds and pulses, in areas where irrigation facilities are weak.

The southwest monsoon, which has been very vigorous over most parts of the country for the past few weeks, might enter a brief lull phase by the end of July or early August, giving a much-needed respite to areas reeling under floods and excess showers.

However, if the lull extends beyond 15 days, it might start harming the standing crops, particularly oilseeds and pulses, in areas where irrigation facilities are weak.

A prolonged break could have an adverse impact in southern Indian states of Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, where the southwest monsoon so far has been unsatisfactory.

According to the data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), till July 25, in Karnataka, of the 30 districts, the monsoon was deficient in almost 60 per cent of them, while it was below normal in almost 72 per cent of the 14 Kerala districts.

The rains were poor in around 59 per cent of the Tamil Nadu’s 32odd districts. But, in Tamil Nadu, the shortfall might not matter much as the state gets a big quantum of its rains from the North-East season which starts from October.

The water levels in 31-odd reservoirs in Southern India till July 25, was around 17 per cent of their full capacity, which was lower than last year’s 28 per cent during the same time of the year. But, the IMD is confident that rain in August will be better than in July over most of the country.

“We are sticking to our prediction of August getting better rain than July,” IMD Director-General K J Ramesh told Business Standard.

The IMD in its updated forecast issued in June had said that rain in August would be 99 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is better than the 96 per cent predicted for July. The forecast was with a model error of plus and minus 9 per cent.

July and August are the most important months in the four-monthlong southwest monsoon season, which starts in June.

The Met department, in its latest weather update, had predicted that overall rain is likely to be below normal over India as a whole during the period July 27 to August 2. Thereafter, it might show a revival but not as strong as the current spate.

“The monsoon might enter a temporary weak phase till August 8-9 in most parts of the country, as there are no big weather systems developing during this period after the current active period mainly over the central, western and northern parts of the country,” Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at private weather forecasting firm Skymet, said.

He said the current active phase of the monsoon over most of the Central, Western, and North-Western parts would cease in the next few days, after which sporadic rain will continue.

“Thereafter, again some weather systems might develop,” Palawat added. The back-to-back low-pressure areas and the very active phase of the southwest monsoon had caused the overall rain to be 11 per cent more than normal during the week ended July 19. Overall, during the entire season so far, that is from June 1 to July 24, the southwest monsoon has been 4 per cent above normal.

But in several pockets like south interior Karnataka, Jharkhand, and Tamil Nadu, the rains have been less than normal so far. In Tamil Nadu, according to the IMD’s latest report, around seven districts have received poor rain, while the number is two in Karnataka and one in Jharkhand.

Good rain has improved the sowing of most kharif crops except those from which farmers have shifted owing to low price realisation last year.

The latest data from the department of agriculture showed that till July 21, around 68.5 million hectares had been brought under kharif crops, and this was nearly 2 per cent more than the same period last year and over 5 per cent more than normal acreage, which is the average of the past five years. However, the acreage under arhar, soybean, groundnut, and sunflower was less than in the same period last year. Retail prices of all these four commodities had fallen sharply last year due to bumper harvests.

The data showed that the area under arhar was around 19.22 per cent less than last year, while those under soybean, groundnut, and sunflower seed were around 17.76 per cent, 11.51 per cent, and 18.99 per cent less than last year, respectively.

The acreage seems to have shifted to cotton in some parts, with the area increasing by almost 21 per cent over the same period last year.

However, the good rains have pushed up the water levels in reservoirs across the country.

According to the Central Water Commission, the volume of water in 91 major reservoirs in the country as of July 20 was 43.73 billion cubic metres, which was 28 per cent of their capacity. When the monsoon started, the water levels in the reservoirs were at 21 per cent of their capacity.