EDIT: Mao’s mantle
The Party Congress may fortify Xi Jinping’s position
The outcome of the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, being convened on Wednesday, will be of major significance not only to China but also the rest of the world in view of Beijing’s rising global profile. Despite the opacity of China’s political processes, it is clear that the Congress will advance the position and influence of President Xi Jinping as the uncontested leader of his country. The strengthening of Mr Xi’s position became clear in the seventh and final plenum of the 18th Party Congress, which concluded its meeting on October 14.
At this plenum, three key documents were transmitted for consideration to the 19th Congress. These included Mr Xi’s own report as Party Secretary General. According to Chinese official media, the report points to the “deep and fundamental changes over the past five years” and declares that their “achievements are comprehensive and groundbreaking”. This is said to mark a “new historical starting point”. The second document is a report on the anti-corruption campaign from the Central Inspection and Discipline Commission headed by Wang Qishan, a trusted associate of Mr Xi. It talks about the “crushing momentum” achieved by the campaign; there is every indication that it will continue. Finally, there is a recommendation for a change in the Party’s Constitution to reflect the new concepts and ideas attributed to Mr Xi. If the amendment carries his name, then he would be placed in the same category as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping and symbolically, therefore, a leader with a stature unmatched by any of his contemporaries. There is a concerted effort to suggest that the country is at a historical inflexion point.
This means that policies China pursues at home and abroad will continue to be driven by Mr Xi’s leadership. What does this augur? Deng had tried to separate the party from the government and remove the party’s interference from economic management. Mr Xi has reversed this trend. The role of state-owned enterprises has been enhanced and their reform has largely meant amalgamating weaker entities with larger and stronger ones. So the consolidation of Mr Xi’s power is unlikely to see the adoption of far-reaching market-based economic reforms that have the potential to undermine the party’s authority and control. The Chinese version of state capitalism is likely to continue, even if this means further economic slowdown. Nevertheless, even a slowing Chinese economy will continue to outpace India.
Chinese media also reports that under Mr Xi, China will continue to pursue “big country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics”. This phraseology suggests that China aspires to a role consonant with its expanding economic and military capabilities in the region and beyond. The assertiveness with which China has been pursuing its perceived interests in the Asia-Pacific region and which carries Mr Xi’s personal imprint is likely to persist and even intensify though it will be cloaked in more palatable terms. This is not good news for India. There is no doubt that China’s likely trajectory under Mr Xi will have a major impact on India and its own engagement with the region and the world. Managing the China challenge will be more complex and yet we know so little about China. All the more reason to deploy much more resources to enhancing our understanding of a country whose future is now inextricably intertwined with our own.