KARNATAKA: WHAT COULD GO WRONG

For the Bharatiya Janata Party

·Severe infighting leads to erosion of Chief Minister aspirant BS Yeddyurappa’s authority. Satraps like Jagadish Shettar (who is, like Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat) could undermine the senior leader. In 2012, a palace coup saw Shettar become chief minister, propped by senior party leader HN Ananth Kumar and State BJP President KS Eshwarappa. If this kind of link up happens again, it could pose a problem both for the confused cadres and the leadership.

· Dalits (around 16 per cent of the population) continue to vote Congress. This is the big X factor in Karnataka. Unless the BJP can make sure the Dalits come to it and abandon the Congress, it has no hope of forming a government. Yeddyurappa has left no stone unturned in wooing the Dalits. But events like Bhima-Koregaon have had a unifying effect on Dalits. The question is whether they will split – or vote strategically together to defeat.

For the Congress ·Anti-incumbency takes a toll. Among the factors are high outlays for social welfare but inadequate utilization of the funds leading to lapsing of money; promises to farmers but not enough done for them; losses from the Mahadayi river dispute with Goa. · The Muslim vote splits. The All India Majlis e Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has announced it will set up candidate in 127 out of Karnataka’s 224 constituencies. If this happens, it can only nibble at the Congress vote and create conditions for its defeat.

· The Janata Dal Secular, which is trying to script a comeback, attacks the Congress and works actively towards its defeat in South Karnataka. To prevent this, Congress leaders need to reach out to JDS patriarch HD Deve Gowda and his sons. There is no evidence this has happened. The advantage will go to the BJP.