‘Rouhani’s tenure will be successful’
Much has been made of Iran President Mr Hassan Rouhani’s second term as President. A right-wing conservative in the 1980s, Rouhani contested the polls as a moderate in 2013. Now he’s won a second time. What does his victory mean for the politics, economy and society of Iran?
There are different factions in Iran which have dominated political institutions at different periods — the radicals in the 1980s, the pragmatists in the 1990s, the moderates in the late 1990s and the early 2000s, and the hardliners led by Ahmadinejad 2005-2013. Moderate Hassan Rouhani became the President of Iran in 2013. Iranian people believed that he would change the conservative society of Iran, improve the economic condition of the country, suffered badly due to UNSC, EU and the USA unilateral sanctions. To some extent, he has succeeded such as nuclear deal between Iran and P5 plus one, Iranian relations with Asian countries including India; and Iran’s relations with European countries. Due to lifting of sanctions, the state of the economy is also improving.
However, conflicts between moderates and conservative are not new. This started when Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani became the President of Iran and continued during the presidency of Mohammad Khatami. In an interview with CNN on January 7, 1998, Khatami made it clear that his goal was to improve Iran’s relations with the US through a “dialogue of civilisations.” He wanted to end the confrontation with the West and improve economic and political relations between Iran and the west. He argued that, “making enemies is not a skill; real skill lies in the ability to neutralise enemies, … And, this is not incompatible with our principles.” He also added that “being mighty does not mean fighting the world at any cost and this debate does not mean abandoning the principles and values of society and revolution.” Khatami apologised for the hostage crisis and denounced terrorism in all its forms.
Khatami’s interview to the CNN was not accepted by the conservative groups in Iran. Ayatollah Khamenei led the charge by claiming that the US was seeking to “bring about instability and insecurity to the nation.” Conservative group held that a dialogue with the USA was even more harmful than maintaining cordial relations with that country.
In his 2017 campaign, he criticised rivals for their repression of opposition, criticized the judiciary for violating the constitution and demanded the Revolutionary Guard stay out of politics. In the process he must have stepped on many toes. Should we expect a counter-reaction and if so, which sections will it come from?
The Velayat-e-Faqih or Supreme Leader is an important institution in Iranian political system and it plays a significant role in the decision-making process of the country. The Supreme Leader has constitutional powers to challenge the decision of the executive presidency since he is the number one figure in the country. One of the recent examples of this was the removal of the then Iranian intelligence minister, Heydar Moslehi by the president and his reinstatement by Supreme Leader Khamenei on April 17, 2011.
I think he will successfully complete his tenure despite opposition from different groups like conservatives and hardliners. Any opposition in the future will come from conservative blocs.
No doubt the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is Iran’s most powerful security and military organisation, responsible for the protection and survival of the regime. In due course, the Guards have also been transformed into leading political and economic actors. The major political role of the IRGC started with the election of the reformist presidency like Khatami. The appointment of Rostam Qasemi, former head of the Khatam Al-Anbia Complex (a branch of IRGC) as the new Iranian oil minister in August 2011 put on fast track, the expansion of the economic and political role of the IRGC. Qasemi, in a short speech during his farewell ceremony said that the Khatam- ol-Anbiya’s construction division should replace giant foreign corporations and try to clear the backlog of projects and implement development plans which are long overdue.
In order to deliver results, Rouhani must work on Iran’s economic policy. But for that he needs to get acceptance for Iran from the rest of the world. What geopolitical moves has Iran made recently to upgrade its global profile - and somewhat mitigate the effects of US sanctions?
In order to improve Iran’s economic conditions, he has maintained cordial relations with neighbouring countries including India and European countries. The recent example is Rouhani’s visit to Italy and France in January 2016. The main motive of this visit was to promote economic and trade relations between Iran and European countries. Rouhani said that his visit to these countries would open a new chapter in Iran-European relations. A number of trade and economic agreements were inked between Iran and Italy during his visit such as between Iranian companies and Italian steel firm Danieli (about US $ 4 billion) and a deal of US $4 billion with another firm related to infrastructure development. Iran and France also inked a number of agreement related to economic and trade such as a joint venture between France’s leading car maker PSA and Iran's Khodro to produce 400,000 vehicles annually by 2020.
The biggest problem seems to be Iran’s place in the Islamic world and the challenges to it. But with changes in Saudi Arabia, the politics of the Islamic world is also changing. Do you see prospects of rivalries settling down? Iran’s relations with Islamic countries especially with Pakistan, Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait will improve in future. But I don’t think there is any possibility of improvement in the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
What does Hassan Rouhani represent for India-Iran relations: continuity, change or a little bit of both?
Following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Iran on May 22-23, 2016 and the Rouhani visit to India on February 15-17, 2018, the future of India-Iran engagement looks reasonably promising as of now. It comes at a time when India is seriously contemplating activation of its ‘Look West’ policy and banking on Iran as a ‘gateway’ and provider of corridor to Central Asia and Afghanistan. The visit sought to revitalise IndiaIran bilateral relations which have passed through an uncertain phase during the last one decade taking advantage of the lifting of international sanction on Iran which followed the nuclear deal between Iran and P5+1.
The changing geopolitical scenario in the region has provided opportunities for both countries to strengthen their cooperation in various sectors including trade and economy, connectivity and combating threats of terrorism, radicalism, drug trafficking and cybercrime. PM Modi put it well when he said, the “agenda and scope of our partnership is truly substantial” and held that the “outcomes and agreements signed today [would] open a new chapter in our strategic partnership.” During his visit to Tehran, the long awaited agreements on Chabahar and Trilateral Transport and Transit Corridor agreement between India, Iran and Afghanistan were signed.
There is considerable unease about Iran in the US not just because of the US president Trump’s statement on re-imposition of economic sanctions on Iran. Some groups in the USA are concerned about India’s growing ties with Iran and signing of bilateral and trilateral agreements between India, Iran and Afghanistan on Chabahar.
However, a lot would depend on India’s ability to stay the course and deliver on its commitments, as well as the way cross-currents of global and regional geopolitics interact with and influence India- Iran bilateral engagement.