Sugar falls to lowest level in 28 months

Sugar prices have declined to their lowest level in 28 months owing to distress sales by mills on account of storage problems.

Storage problems are because of a production glut this season.

With the output reaching 30 million tonnes by mid-April and 227 mills still in operation, the industry is now forecasting production at a record 31.5 million tonnes for the season 2017-18 as against 20.3 million tonnes during last season (October-September).

At the beginning of the crushing season, i.e. October last year, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) had estimated sugar output at 25.1 million tonnes, and later revised it to 29.5 million tonnes. Since the output has never been this big, mills did not build storage facilities over the past few years.

“Not only small and medium units, leading sugar producers too are selling stocks. Renting storage facilities in far-flung areas may be expensive. Hence, distress sale is preferred,” said a senior executive of a leading Uttar Pradesh-based sugar mill. Against the cost of production of ~36 a kg, sugar is trading at ~25.50 a kg (ex-factory) and ~29 a kg in the wholesale market.

Sugar prices have declined by 10.2 per cent in April alone and 24.56 per cent since the current crushing season started in October.

Union Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan has said an informal ministerial panel is exploring options like production-linked subsidies, imposing a sugar cess in accordance with the Sugar Cess Act, and a cut on the goods and services tax (GST) on ethanol. These options are being explored to help mills clear cane arrears of ~190 billion.

“Considering India’s annual consumption of 25 million tonnes and 2 million tonnes of exports, which could be challenging in the next five months, the government would require to deal with the additional stock of 4.5 million tonnes over and above the normal inventory level,” said Abinash Verma, director general, ISMA.

Meanwhile, a sharp fall in sugar prices abroad has worsened things by making exports almost impossible. Under the minimum indicative export quota (MIEQ), the government has allocated sugar export of 2 million tonnes in the current season. But, sugar prices in global markets have fallen in proportion to price declines in India. The loss to Indian mills has been, on average, ~10 a kg. The industry has asked for compensation.