Lebanon votes with $11 billion at stake

Lebanon is holding its first parliamentary elections in nine years, a pivotal moment for the country as it tries to ease a crippling debt burden and avoid being dragged deeper into some of the Middle East’s escalating crises.

Polls opened on Sunday under a new law based on proportional representation that’s meant to more accurately represent Lebanon’s complex sectarian demographics. With few expecting major changes to the delicate balance of power, the postballot focus will be on building a cabinet able to carry out measures sought by donors, a complicated task in a country where divisions have stymied reforms for decades.

“Irrespective of who wins the elections, Lebanon will face hurdles implementing reforms,” said Hani Sabra, founder of Alef Advisory, a New York-based consultancy. Results will be released May 7, according to ballot observers.

In order to receive $11 billion pledged at an April conference in France, the incoming government will have to take steps to control the world’s third-biggest debt burden, including cuts to public spending and a crackdown on corruption. Making the challenges more daunting is a heated confrontation between Israel and Iran, one that could degenerate into a war involving Hezbollah, the Shiite armed group backed by Tehran and which plays a key role in Lebanese politics.

Hezbollah is the only group that kept its weapons after the end of Lebanon’s civil war. Along with its partners, Hezbollah could win about a third of the 128 seats in parliament, giving it the “power to block decisions,” said Rosanna Bou Monsef, a political commentator for the An-Nahar daily. Still, Hezbollah’s leaders might downplay electoral successes that could “drive investors away,” she said.