South, NE may get less rain, says IMD
The southwest monsoon is expected to be slightly below normal in the southern and north-eastern parts of the country but normal in the north-west and central regions, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its second-stage forecast. The error range is eight per cent, plus or minus.
Month-wise, rainfall in July is expected to be heavy at 101 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). August it is expected to see 94 per cent of the LPA. The error range for this is nine per cent. IMD officials said a slightly below normal southwest monsoon in southern peninsular India would not have a big impact. Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and also Kerala get a sizable chunk of their showers from the northeastern monsoon, also called the winter rain.
“In northeast India, the overall quantum is as high as 150180 cm. So, even if there is a 15 per cent shortfall, there isn’t much impact on the ground and overall rain,” K J Ramesh, the director-general of IMD, told Business Standard.
He said the big story of their forecast was that the highly rain dependent areas of the country — Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and even Uttar Pradesh — were expected to get very good rainfall. The department also retained its overall forecast for the 2018 monsoon season at ‘normal’, at 97 per cent of the LPA as was forecast in April — with a four per cent error margin, up or down. There is, it has said, a 43 per cent probability of a normal monsoon, one percentage point higher than the April forecast. The probability of below normal rain is now 28 per cent, almost two percentage points less than estimated earlier.
Good rain in the northern and central parts — Punjab, Haryana, UP, MP, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh — should help in planting of major kharif crops such as pulses, oilseeds and paddy. However, less in the south — Karnataka, Andhra, Telangana, Kerala — could impact crops grown in these parts, that include pulses. Karnataka has already gone through back-to-back droughts.
“The fact that parts of the south might get below normal rain is a matter of concern, particularly in cotton and pulses. Also, the forecast shows that after making a good start in July, the monsoon might taper in August, a critical time for standing crops as they reach flowering stage,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings.