To Orban via Thatcher, Harper and Yew

The by-poll results across the country, announced on Thursday, are in stark contrast to the euphoria experienced by Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party exactly four years ago. In May 2014, the Indian electorate thought it had found the solution to all its problems in Mr Modi’s leadership. As against the bumbling and mumbling Manmohan Singh-led government, Mr Modi had come across as someone who had the commonsensical answer to all worries. For instance, to farmers, he promised higher prices, and to consumers, he promised lower prices. The promises flew in all directions and were made to everyone in a secular manner, regardless of age, gender, class and caste barriers. For some, although, it was enough that he was a kattar Hindu (a firm believer in Hinduism) and could build roads. But, the fact remains that he never clarified, nor was he asked by anyone, about the various internal contradictions in such promises. Not surprisingly, people have spent the last four years pointing out how many promises remain unfulfilled. To blunt such criticisms, Modi Sarkar has lurched from one propaganda drive to another. Here’s a recap. The four years of Modi Sarkar can be summarised under four broad phases. Each of these phases, even though they are not watertight compartments, gives a flavour of how Mr Modi’s rule was seen — both by its supporters and its detractors.

Thatcher and Reagan

This was the first phase and its beginning pre-dates Mr Modi becoming prime minister. During this phase (mid-2013 to mid-2015), Mr Modi was seen as India’s answer to Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. Mr Modi berated the Congress-led UPA government for the politics of doles and handouts. The real solutions lay not in wasteful rural employment guarantee-type programmes but in empowering the young to voluntarily join India’s growth story by equipping them with skills. It was hoped that India would finally accept that its true inclination was right of centre and, under Mr Modi, get the chance to act on it. Minimum government, maximum governance was the motto and markets were supposed to find the solutions. It appeared as if Mr Modi could disband any policy and any institution (remember Planning Commission) regardless of its history, provenance, role and achievement.

Stephen Harper

The Reagan-Thatcher phase carried on until Mr Modi came up against his first real challenge — reforming land acquisition in India. After failing to amend the land acquisition law despite repeated Ordinances, he finally gave up on the issue in the first half of 2015. Since then the official line seems to be that India does not have a land acquisition problem. Many also saw the BJP’s resounding loss in the Delhi Assembly election to a political upstart in the Aam Aadmi Party and jibes such as “suit boot ki sarkar” bemoaning Mr Modi’s promarket stance as significant contributory factors bringing about an almost 180-degree change in Modi Sarkar’s positioning. From mid2015 to October 2016, it was thought that the real wisdom lay in incremental change, not big bang reform, as was promised earlier. During this phase, Mr Modi was seen as India’s answer to conservative Canadian PM Stephen Harper, who was known for this policy approach.

Lee Kuan Yew

The tide of propaganda turned yet again when, in the immediate aftermath of the demonetisation announcement, it was held that the days of incrementalism were over and Mr Modi would not stop at anything short of a transformation of the Indian economy, society and polity. Mr Modi was reintroduced as the man determined to bring about transparency in public life. (For obvious reasons, political funding was kept out of this drive.) For public consumption, big bang reforms were back in favour and there was not a moment to lose. Mr Modi was now India’s answer to Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew: Clearcut thinking focused on achieving growth with a strong dose of illiberality thrown in. The only problem with this phase was that economic growth faltered under the strain of Mr Modi’s policy enthusiasm. And that robbed the LKY-type image building of its sheen. People were increasingly asking about jobs and the PM had little more than pakoda- selling to offer.

Victor Orban

We are now in the fourth phase. That’s because economic growth and jobs do not matter as much. That's because, if you listen to the government, all this has been achieved. It is now about saving the country, in a manner of speaking, from those who are not honest and patriotic. That is why, Mr Modi is increasingly being grouped with the likes of Viktor Orban, prime minister of Hungary, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president of Turkey. The first thought that comes to mind when you think of these leaders is the “illiberality” of their regimes. Mr Orban, in fact, went on record in July 2014 to proclaim: The “new state that we are building is an illiberal state.” That is not to say that he is undemocratic. Far from it. Since then he has won another term and remains popular just like Mr Putin is in Russia and Mr Erdogan is in Turkey.

Next phase?

It is hard to suggest what the next phase of propaganda may be. But it is said that “propaganda is that branch of the art of lying which consists in nearly deceiving your friends without quite deceiving your enemies”. In essence, biggest victims of Modi Sarkar’s ever-changing narratives are its supporters. That should be cause for worry for the BJP more than anything else. The next election is unlikely to be fought on economic growth data (not that we have accurate and comparable data). Mr Modi’s fate rests on one simple question: Do his supporters still believe in him? More so, because his detractors surely dislike him even more and are now joining hands.