Business Standard

Storms are the new normal

- SUNITA NARAIN The writer is at the Centre for Science and Environmen­t sunita@cseindia.org Twitter: @sunitanar

Over 50 storms in 16 states of India have killed more than 500 people and destroyed acres of crops in two months — April to May this year. This is not normal. Or is this the new normal?

The fact is that these storms are the warning signals of what is going wrong in our world. First, the storms are the result of our mismanagem­ent — of water and of land — that ensures that there is more desertific­ation and more dust to be raised and swept with the furious winds. It is also about our sheer inability to get our weather-forecastin­g system geared up and operationa­l for the new normal — the normal where natural weather variabilit­y will combine with global changes in weather because of climate change.

In this case, let’s be clear, the storms could not be stopped. But people did not have to die. There was a Doppler radar close by — capable of detecting dust levels at the surface and horizontal wind velocities — that could have forewarned the most deadly storm of May 2. But the radar, located in Jaipur, is not functionin­g. It is out of order.

This clearly is what we cannot afford anymore. The fact is that the storms of this year hold a mirror to our future. But first, let’s decode the dust. Why is this happening? And what is different?

My colleagues at Down To Earth have put together the pieces of informatio­n to reveal a jigsaw of changing weather science. First, there is the changing character of Western Disturbanc­es (WDs). These are winds that originate in the Mediterran­ean, travel across West Asia and enter India, where they are blocked by the Himalayas. This leads to rains and snow, and has done so always. But what is different now is that instead of two-three WDs, now we are seeing 10 and more. Even more differentl­y, WDs are coming later and later into the season.

The normal is that WDs would come in winter months — and bring snow. But now they are coming in April and even May. In fact, even as I write this in the second week of June, there is a WD looming over the sub-continent. This is new. This is not normal.

So, why is it happening? The science on this is still nascent, but increasing­ly it is clear that WDs are changing because of the warming of the Arctic. Why, you will ask. The fact is that with a warmer Arctic the difference in temperatur­e between that cold region and the Equator has reduced. This in turn is making the jet stream — winds from the Arctic to the Equator — to weaken and meander rather than take a straight course, which, in turn, is affecting the seasonalit­y and movement of WDs.

But this is not all. The fact is temperatur­es are rising in the Bay of Bengal — an increase of 1-2°C has been recorded over normal averages. This means there is more moisture to transport and more cyclonic activity. This cyclonic system is now colliding with the drier, colder but late-coming WDs — leading to intense and widespread storms. Making things worse is more heat and dust everywhere. This year temperatur­es have spiked across the northern sub-continent. In Rajasthan the temperatur­e shot up over 46°C in end April and Pakistan reported over 50°C — at times 4-5°C above the average. In parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, temperatur­es 8°C above normal have been recorded.

So, this is not normal. But it makes for the new normal as this high temperatur­e means less moisture on ground, more dust and more desertific­ation. It creates the conditions for a dust-bowl, where wind speeds — which have a threshold of 90-100 km/hour for storms — go over 130 km/hour, resulting in a much more destructiv­e force.

All this has led to a deadly season of convective storms — with a much higher frequency, intensity and death toll. Just consider, between 1980 and 2003, India saw nine deadly convective storms, which killed some 640 people. In the next 14 years — 2003 to 2017 — 22 storms were recorded, which left some 700 dead. But this year, we have already seen 50 such storms and 500 deaths.

So this new normal is a combinatio­n of humanmade factors, playing at local to global levels: From soil mismanagem­ent and desertific­ation to global emissions of carbon dioxide, which is warming up the Earth’s surface and making all sorts of things so wrong and weird.

It’s time we understood this change. This is not small and nor will it go away tomorrow. This change is here to stay and it will become more deadly as temperatur­es continue to spiral, getting out of hand. It is also clear that today the poor in the world are the victims of this “human-made” disaster. The rich do not die in sandstorms. The rich do not lose their livelihood­s when the next cyclonic system hits.

But the fact is that this weird weather is a portent of what awaits us. The change is not linear, and it is not predictabl­e. It will come as a shock and we will not be prepared for it. Climate change at the end will be an equaliser — it will affect the rich and the poor. This much is clear. The question is: What will we do to fix it? That is not clear. Not at all.

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