Cotton, oilseeds to take over pulses’ sowing area

Cotton and oilseeds are likely to take over a significant part of pulses’ acreage this kharif season due to a sharp increase in their minimum support price (MSP) for the current season coupled with better price realisation last year.

As against the MSP of ~5,400 a quintal for 2017-18 kharif season, average urad price stood at ~4,720 a quintal for May 2017, which steadily declined further to stabilise at ~3018.5 a quintal towards the beginning of the current sowing season in May 2018. Similarly, arhar and moong also traded substantially below the MSP throughout 2017-18 season. By contrast, however, soybean and cotton prices traded substantially higher than their respective MSPs, barring a couple of occasions when they slipped marginally below the government’s threshold price. Encouraged by the government’s timely interventions, spot prices of cotton and soybean along with other oilseeds moved higher.

“Sowing area and production of pulses are set to contract this kharif season due to lower realisation yielded by farmers last year. By contrast, however, sowing area and production of oilseeds and cotton may rise this year,” said Sanjay Kaul, managing director, National Collateral Management Services (NCML). Based on lower acreage so far this season, NCML forecasts India’s pulses production to decline by 7.7 per cent at 8.32 million tonnes (mt) this kharif season, second slump in a row, compared to 9.01 mt produced last year as per the third Advanced Estimates for 2017-18 from the Union Ministry of Agriculture. In a first-of-its-kind of kharif crop production forecast, NCML estimates oilseeds and cotton output to rise by 9 per cent and 7.6 per cent to 22.57 mt and 37.5 million bales (1 bale = 170 kg) this year, from 20.68 mt and 34.86 million bales last year, respectively.