Distant neighbours
Modi govt’s foreign policy falters
When it took charge, the National Democratic Alliance government seemed to have picked up its foreign policy mantra from what former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee once said: “You can change friends but not neighbours.” As such, the Modi government seemed to follow a “neighbourhood first” policy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi took an active and keen interest in making this happen. The government made an early and much overdue reorientation of India’s foreign policy towards its neighbours, seeking to inject substance into the oft-repeated rhetoric of attaching the highest priority to neighbouring countries. There was a flurry of high-level visits, a readiness to deal with negative legacy issues and contribute to development in the neighbourhood through better connectivity and infrastructure development. There was an effort to look more seriously at regional and sub-regional cooperation under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) and the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal Initiative (BBIN) respectively. But as has happened repeatedly in the past, the initial momentum has flagged. As the PM enters the last lap of his term, it is an open question whether India’s relations with any of its neighbours have decidedly improved. Indeed, there is evidence that India might have allowed its sphere of influence to shrink considerably, last week’s bitter political standoff with the Maldives being the latest example.
Minor issues, unaddressed, have become festering irritants in our relations with several neighbours and the record on delivering on project commitments remains dismal. Perhaps the biggest setback under the Modi regime is that with each passing year, India has lost ground to China, its biggest competitor in the region, in Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. For instance, India’s unofficial blockade of Nepal in 2015 gave rise to a massive wave of anti-Indian sentiment in the country, leading to the pro-China leader, K P Oli, taking over premiership. Over the years, Sino-Nepal economic ties have intensified rapidly — China is Nepal’s biggest foreign investor, making double the foreign direct investment than India — even as India has faltered in keeping its promises. China is offering Nepal a credible alternative to being “India-locked”, and Nepal looks set to act on it. The positive developments in Indo-Bangladesh relations have been soured by domestic politics driven by communal sentiments. The stand taken on the Rohingya issue is a case in point.
And on Pakistan, as long as the temptation to make it a factor in domestic politics is not resisted, it is difficult to see how relations can be improved even marginally. The imposition of Governor’s rule in Jammu and Kashmir and the stated intent to intensify security operations in the state will only make foreign policy decisions more complex and difficult. The UN report on human rights situation in the state is a pointer to greater international focus on this issue and the prospect for a re-hyphenation of India-Pakistan relations and an unwelcome external intrusion, once again, in these relations. India's neighbourhood policy needs a thorough review and a new and sustained focus. It remains true that India can play a meaningful regional and global role only if it manages its own periphery well. At present, it is falling short on this count.