Business Standard

Urban centers draw global population growth, suggest demographi­c trends

Delhi expected to surpass the population of Tokyo by 2030

- ALEXANDRE TANZI 14 July

Over the next 30 years, more than two thirds of the world’s population will be living in urban areas, according to a United Nations report highlighti­ng global demographi­c shifts. Today, slightly more than half of the world's population lives in an urban area. Most of the growth in the coming years will be highly concentrat­ed in just a few countries with one third coming from India, China and Nigeria. By 2050, these three countries are projected to have added 860 million urban dwellers. Rural population­s are projected to peak in the next few years and by 2050, rural population­s will have fallen by almost 325 million people globally.

A new phenomenon is coming too - - cities with a population of 10 million or more in low-income countries. Kinshasa, DR Congo is projected to become the seventh-largest metro area on Earth by 2035. Delhi is expected to be the most populous city in the world in a decade -- surpassing Tokyo. Chennai (Madras), India; Luanda, Angola; and Hyderabad, India will join the ranks of the 30 largest cities in the world. By 2030, the world is projected to have 43 megacities with more than 10 million inhabitant­s, according to the report.

By 2020, Tokyo's population is projected to enter into decline.

The level of urbanizati­on surpassed 50 percent globally in 2007 and is

expected to reach that figure in Asia next year. India is projected to cross over to a majority urban country in 2046. Africa is seen remaining majority

rural, with 43 percent of the population living in urban areas in 2050. In the US, nine in 10 people are projected to live in an urban area.

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