Why legislative business may take a hit

In the Monsoon Session of Parliament, which begins Wednesday, Rajya Sabha members for the first time will be able to speak in the all 22 scheduled languages listed in the Constitution following a provision for the simultaneous interpretation services. But it looks nearly certain that our MPs would not be listening to any.

The penultimate session of the 16th Lok Sabha, unless the Opposition and ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) reach a rapprochement, is set to be a washout. Disruptions are likely to be frequent during the session’s 18 sittings.

The Narendra Modi government’s legislative agenda will be a mix of economic and political, indicated Parliamentary Affairs Minister Ananth Kumar recently. Key ordinances need to be approved by the two Houses, and Bills replacing these ordinances introduced for discussion and passage. The ordinances include— the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (Amendment) Ordinance, the Fugitive Economic Offenders Ordinance and an ordinance that enables the creation of commercial divisions in high courts and district courts.

The Criminal Law (Amendment) Ordinance, 2018, which provides for stringent punishment, including the death penalty, for those convicted of raping girls below 12 years, will also need to be approved, and a Bill to this effect set to be introduced. The Fugitive Economic Offenders Bill is pending with the Lok Sabha. It was introduced in the House on March 12.

The government might also try to make political capital out of the Opposition’s refusal in the Rajya Sabha, where the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance still doesn’t have simple majority, to support a Bill to give statutory status to a commission for backward classes, as

also its refusal to support the contentious ‘triple talaq’ Bill. The Lok Sabha has already passed both these Bills.

But the script written in the second half of the Budget session in March, when several opposition parties had moved a symbolic no-confidence motion in the Lok Sabha against the Narendra Modi government, would continue to be played out during the Monsoon session. Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan did not take up the no-confidence motion, citing disruptions.

The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has said it will again move a no-confidence motion against the Modi government in the Monsoon session for its failure to grant Andhra Pradesh special category status. The YSR Congress Party, the TDP’s Andhra rival, is set to follow suit.

Senior TDP leader Lanka Dinakaran said on Friday his party has reached out to other opposition parties to support the motion. During the Budget Session, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) members had disrupted proceedings demanding a board to be set up for the management of Cauvery waters and can be trusted to raise the issue again during the forthcoming session.

Communist Party of India (Marxist) Lok Sabha member Mohammed Salim has accused the AIADMK of causing disruptions at the behest of the Modi government. In the Budget Session, opposition parties had accused the government of running away from discussions on key issues, including on economy. There was no discussion on the Finance Bill, which was passed in the Lok Sabha amid disruptions.

Outside Parliament, farmer groups and trade unions plan to hold protests against the policies of the government. On August 9, the anniversary of the Quit India Movement of 1942, several trade unions and farmer organisations will hold protests in New Delhi to highlight agrarian distress and “anti-labour policies of the government”.

The election for the deputy chairman of the Rajya Sabha is also on the anvil. The Modi government will be without the services of its key troubleshooter and the Leader of the House in the Rajya Sabha, Union minister Arun Jaitley. In Jaitley’s absence, the responsibility to marshal BJP members in the Rajya Sabha will fall on BJP chief Amit Shah. It will be interesting to see how Shah reaches out to some of the regional parties to support an NDA candidate for the post.

As things stand, neither the Opposition nor BJP-led NDA has the numbers. The Opposition is likely to field Trinamool Congress MP Sukhendu Sekhar Roy, while there is speculation that the NDA could field Shiromani Akali Dal’s Naresh Gujral. The Biju Janata Dal, which has nine Rajya Sabha members, could swing the contest in favour of whichever side it supports.

The Opposition is likely to insist on discussions on the state of the economy, lynchings of Dalits and minorities, trolling on social media, including of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, and Modi government’s foreign policy. But with assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram barely three months away, and the 2019 Lok Sabha election round the corner, it is unlikely that either the government or the Opposition would give an inch.