Water: The next frontier
Investments in highways and power are likely to peak by 2025. The next sector should be water
The water resources ministry recently moved a proposal for cabinet approval of the ~400 billion Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP). To be completed in seven years, the project’s core aim is to move surplus water from rivers in South Rajasthan (such as the Chambal), through a system of canals to areas in South Eastern Rajasthan which face large water deficits. The aim is to irrigate nearly 10,00,000 acres of land.
The ERCP project could well mark a point of inflexion for the infrastructure sector. Investments in traditional infrastructure sectors like highways and power are likely to peak by 2025. If the criticality between supply and demand is any criteria to go by, the next sector for massive programmatic investments should be water.
Niti Aayog, in a landmark report published just two months ago (Composite Water Management Index: A Tool For Water Management), pointed out that 600 million Indians face ‘high to extreme water stress’ and about 200,000 lakh people die every year as a result of being unable to access safe water. By 2030, the report says, the country’s water demand is likely to be twice the available supply.
The ferocity and intensity of water disputes across the country, such as the Cauvery water dispute, the deep distress in the farm sector, and the recent water ‘blackout’ in Shimla are all indicators that this problem is with us, here and now, and not in some hypothetical future.
The Niti report ranks states based on a water management index aimed at incentivising water management and governance. Niti Aayog’s water index for instance, assesses states on nine separate themes, ranging from groundwater, irrigation, watershed development, rural drinking water, and urban water supply. Tellingly, it is some of the water scarce states — Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana — that have faced severe droughts in recent years — which have taken the lead in water management and score the best on the index. Sixty per cent of states (14 of 24), however, are classified by the index as ‘low performers’, including Rajasthan.
But the water sector is unlike many other sectors which have seen big inflows of investment in recent years.
First and foremost, it is deeply emotive and connected to people’s way of life in a way that roads, ports, airports, or even power is not — inequalities of access (perceived and real) are felt far more strongly. This means that perhaps more than any other sector, politics will play a critical role, whether the governments and the investors like it or not.
Second, centre-state relationships and state-state relationships will be core to the sector because of the basic fact that water flows don’t really respect national and state boundaries.
Third, there will be no one size fits all. In some states and areas, linking river waters (such as in the Rajasthan canal project) may be key to availability. In other areas, managing groundwater resources, and discouraging water intensive cash crops may be the answer.
Fourth, managing water access in urban areas faces a different set of problems and local governments will play a critical role.
Despite the diversity and complexity of the sector, or because of it, it is important for governments to set priorities. The report, for instance, highlights groundwater resources as a critical area, with 54 per cent of India’s groundwater wells declining. The central government is already suggesting to states that power tariffs for farmers be linked to the water table. Twentyone major cities are expected to run out of groundwater by as early as 2020. Addressing the problems of both groundwater augmentation (the ‘supply’ part of the problem) and ensuring that demand for groundwater is managed, perhaps by incentivising farmers to grow less water-intensive crops, should be a priority. Managing urban water supplies, by ensuring that better-off households pay the full economic costs of water they use, should also be a priority. Formats to introduce private investments and participation are clearly necessary.
In 2002, the Indian government had set up a high-powered task force under Suresh Prabhu to do a deep-dive on a comprehensive river-linking programme. In September 2003, this task force submitted an Action Plan II offering the view that an integrated programme would be much higher than the initial estimate of ~5.6 trillion. Cut to 2018, such a programme now, experts believe, could be well above ~20 trillion. Besides the “solution” to floods and droughts, the project claimed certain benefits. These include: Irrigation of 34 million hectares of land Potable water for rural and urban areas and industrial water-supply 34,000-MW hydel power generation Inland navigation Ecological upgradation and increased tree farming
Sizeable employment generation National integration
In recent times, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has emerged as an enthusiast for inland waterways. The National Waterways Bill 2015 introduced by him in Parliament in May 2015, recognised 101 riverine waterways as National Waterways.
In 1998, the BJP government under AB Vajpayee inaugurated the National Highway Development Project (NHDP), which kickstarted a huge and ongoing process of road modernisation in this country. An NHDP equivalent in water, but tuned to local nuances as befits the complexity of the sector, is sorely needed.