Rain deficit in 39% of 681 districts so far SANJEEB MUKHERJEE

Met signals revival in some parts next week

The southwest monsoon was 33 per cent below normal during the first week of August, pulling the cumulative shortfall to almost 10 per cent. This was one of the worst weeks in terms of performance this season.

The weekly update, issued on Thursday by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), shows almost all parts of the country, barring Kerala which is facing floods in several parts, Odisha, East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, had less than normal rain during the August 2-8 week.

So far in this monsoon (from June 1), around 39 per cent of the country's 681 districts have had deficient rain. Jharkhand (24 per cent deficit), Saurashtra and Kutch (26 per cent deficit), north interior Karnataka (24 per cent deficit), Rayalaseema (less 42 per cent) and Marathwada (less 18 per cent) are the main areas that are looking at a drought-like situation, unless there is big revival in the coming weeks.

Farmers from a village in Marathwada have filed a police complaint against the IMD on the charge of misleading forecasts and colluding with seed and pesticide companies.

The Met department now says it sees a coming revival of the rains. Under the influence of a new lowpressure area, it says, this is likely to form over the northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood area around Monday.

With strong southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal to the northeastern states, fairly widespread to widespread rain, with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places, is very likely over the northeast states, West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, East UP, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh during most days in the next one week.

However, west Rajasthan, Gujarat, Marathawada, Telangana, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu are expected to get only scattered rainfall during the next two weeks.

Last week, the IMD's second seasonal forecast said the rain in August and September would be 'normal' at 95 per cent of the long period average (LPA), days after private weather forecasting agency, Skymet predicted 'below normal' rain in the remaining two months of the southwest monsoon season. The forecast is with 8 per cent margin of error.

For August, the IMD has said it expected the rainfall to be normal or even higher than what was predicted in June, at 96 per cent of the LPA. In June, it had predicted the rain in August would be 94 per cent of the LPA. Skymet has said rain in August would be ‘deficient’ at 88 per cent of the LPA.