RAINS DEFICIENT IN FIVE STATES

RAINFALL DEFICIENCY AT THE ALL-INDIA LEVEL STOOD AT 8 per cent below the long-period average (LPA) in the week ended September 12, as the monsoon begins its slow withdrawal.

On an overall basis, six key kharif growing states — Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal, Bihar, Haryana and Gujarat — have rainfall deficiency on a cumulative basis. But healthy irrigation cover in a few them — and for certain crops — has saved the blushes. On an overall basis, only the groundnut crop is under some pressure.

Irrigation is a crucial determinant to assess impact of rainfall on states and crops. By itself, rainfall volume data is not enough to gauge the distribution impact.

This is where CRISIL’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter, or DRIP, provides a better assessment, because it considers the irrigation buffer available for states and crops. The higher the CRISIL DRIP score, the more adverse the impact of deficient rains.

The latest scores continue to highlight the strain in Gujarat, West Bengal, Bihar and Rajasthan. Last week, AP was added to that list with marginally deficient rains. In these states, scores are higher than last year and the average of the past five years.

But crop-wise DRIP scores show stress on groundnut (largely cultivated in rain-deficient Gujarat). Rice, which all this while was in strain, showed some recovery as rains caught up in key rice-growing states.

We will continue to track DRIP scores for the rest of September, but with the southwest monsoon retreating, the situation is unlikely to alter much.