A ticking time bomb

Unemployment data deeply worrying

The suppressed National Sample Survey Office report on employment in India bears some deeply worrying evidence apart from the rising unemployment rate. One such is the decline in the labour force participation rate, which measures the ratio of people employed or actively seeking employment to the total working age population. This ratio has been falling systematically and sharply in India, from 63.7 per cent in 2004-05 to 55.9 per cent in 2011-12 to 49.8 per cent in 2017-18. The ratios for men and women taken separately have both fallen. Roughly three-fourths of the male working age population is included in the LFPR while only a quarter of working age females are employed or are actively seeking work.

This obviously is of concern since India is supposed to have a demographic dividend with a large proportion of young people entering the labour market. However, the report reveals that the LFPR for youth in the age group of 15-29 years has also declined from 44.6 per cent in 2011-12 to 38.2 per cent in 2017-18. The unemployment rate for this age group is estimated to be an alarming 27.2 per cent in 2017-18. Looking at the big picture in India, there is, evidently, an employment crisis. Tweaking data will not change any of these facts. The Centre is sitting on a potentially inflammable social problem.

The Telegraph, February 8