INDIA’S COVID-19 TEST

The number of coronavirus (Covid-19) cases has surged across the world, and India is also witnessing an increase. It added more cases in one day (149 on March 28) than its total about less than a fortnight ago (110 on March 15), though the growth rate has been volatile (chart 1). This may well have to do with reporting and testing. However, the spread is undeniable. The number of districts affected has risen from 82 to 132 in a matter of days (chart 2). The worst-affected states remain Maharashtra and Kerala. They accounted for more than a third of the cases. The majority of them are Indian citizens, though there are some foreign nationals as well (chart 3).

A comparison with the worst-affected countries, including the US, which overtook China to have the most number of confirmed cases last week, shows that India’s growth trajectory offers some comfort. The number of cases in India has grown around nine times in the two weeks after crossing the 100-mark. Other countries have seen cases grow by a multiple of more than 44 in a similar period (chart 4). Undeniably, some of this has to do with low testing. South Korea has tested around 20,000 a day. Austria has announced plans to test 15,000 a day. India had tested less than 30,000 individuals in total since the outbreak. The number of deaths as a percentage of confirmed cases is 2.6 per cent. This is lower than in many countries (chart 5). Demographics may play a part. The elderly are particularly vulnerable to the disease. India has fewer people over the age of 65 (chart 6) than the rest of the world.