COVID INTERMISSION! MORE THAN 80% MOVIE LOVERS MISS THEATRES

Summer heat not enough to kill coronavirus as cases mount over the past few days

Amid global speculation that Covid-19 may begin to tail off in summer, India is witnessing its steepest jump in cases over the past few days, even as the mercury across the country is on the rise.

India has witnessed an increase of over 5 per cent every day in the total number of cases in the past nine days. In the past 24 hours alone, the country witnessed 6,977 new Covid-19 cases, taking the tally to 138,845. The country’s death count also breached the 4,000-mark. As of Monday, the death toll stood at 4,021, with 154 more people succumbing to the disease.

“It is hard to separate that (effect of rising temperature) from the effects of the lockdown. At any rate, the doubling time seems to be decreasing and this doesn’t suggest soaring temperatures will mitigate the spread of the virus,” said Gautam Menon, professor of computational biology and theoretical physics at Ashoka University.

Menon also said India’s R-value — to measure the number of persons each Covid-19 patient can infect — is 1.2 to 1.3, with a considerable variation between states. “We calculated it had been declining until about a week to 10 days ago. But, it may be on the upswing now,” said Menon.

According to experts, the only transmission that could reduce due to higher temperature is the one through surfaces, as the lifespan of the virus on infected droplets gets reduced when the mercury rises above 24°C. “When the primary transmission is through overcrowding and close contact, temperature will not play a big role,” said E Sreekumar, chief scientific officer, Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Biotechnology.

A Covid-19 study by Johns Hopkins and Michigan universities had assessed if there was any correlation between country-wise average monthly temperature and total incidence of Covid-19 in India.

“Our analysis, based on t he current data, suggests we cannot rely on the hypothetical prevention (with inconclusive evidence) governed by meteorological factors, and need public health actions, regardless of the seasonal weather,” the study said.

Jacob John, virologist and former Indian Council of Medical Research chairman, said: “I will not count on temperature to slow down the pandemic. This is not an airborne infection. It passes through droplets and does not travel beyond 3 feet. It can be passed on through moisture in our breath.”

If an increase in temperature is not affecting the number of cases, will a drop in mercury have any impact?

“The pandemic will end by winter. And then it will become a slow-spreading endemic infection. We will have to wait and see next year — whether it’s going to be seasonal or throughout the year,” added John.