IMD RAISES MONSOON FORECAST ON THE DAY RAINS HIT KERALA COAST

As the southwest monsoon reached the Kerala coast on time, the India Meteorological Department upgraded its forecast of the 2020 rains to 102 per cent of the Long Period Average, from the 100 per cent in April. The forecast is with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent. The forecasts showed that barring the Northeast and eastern India, the rainfall in all the other regions will be towards the higher side of the ‘normal’. SANJEEB MUKHERJEE reports

As the southwest monsoon reached the Kerala coast on time, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) upgraded its forecast for the 2020 rains to 102 per cent of the long period average (LPA), from the previous 100 per cent in April. The forecast is with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent.

The forecasts showed that barring the Northeast and eastern India, the rainfall will be towards the higher side of the ‘normal’.

Northwest India, which comprises states, such as Punjab, Haryana, UP, and Delhi, is projected to get “above normal” rainfall this year — 107 per cent of the LPA. The IMD said central India, most of which is rainfed, is expected to get rainfall equivalent to 103 per cent of its LPA. Southern India may get rainfall equal to 102 per cent of the LPA.

East and Northeast India are expected to get 96 per cent of the LPA. However, this should not cause much worry, as the quantum of rainfall in the eastern part is higher than other regions. The forecast is with a model error of plus or minus 8 per cent.

The central India subdivision covers Goa, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha, while the southern peninsula subdivision comprises Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana.

The east and northeast subdivision covers all the northeastern states besides West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar.

The IMD said global models indicate cool El Niño-southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are likely to prevail during monsoon with a possibility of weak La Nina conditions in the later part of the season.

La Nina is associated with cooling of Pacific waters and is believed to have a positive impact on the Indian monsoon. The IMD classifies rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA as normal.

Though the cumulative LPA for the four-month rainfall for all-india is 88 cm, there can be regional variations. In July, the rains would be 103 per cent of the LPA while in August it will be 97 per cent, said the MET department. July and August are the two most important months for the southwest monsoon as these get most rainfall. The forecast is with a model error of plus or minus 9 per cent.

“The arrival of monsoon and its progress over most parts of the country is very important, rather than just total quantum of rains. Overall, the forecast is very positive for the agriculture sector,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings.

The four-month monsoon season from June to September accounts for 75 per cent of the country’s rainfall.

Private forecaster Skymet, on May 30, had declared the arrival of monsoon, but the IMD had differed.