A million and counting

ON JULY 16, INDIA had crossed 1 million Covid-19 cases, and is only behind the US and Brazil in the number of confirmed infections. Things, as they stand today, do not look promising.

Despite imposing one of the strictest lockdowns in the world, India is witnessing a rapid rise in cases. Chart 1 shows that the pace of new active cases being added daily is rising faster than ever. Relative to active cases, the number of deaths is low. But this should not be seen as a success: Covid deaths can be avoided in many cases if diagnosed at an early stage, research has shown.

Chart 2 shows how the share of tests returning positive results is rising over time in many states. This shows that the infection is spreading faster than before, and people need to follow the safety protocol with a higher degree of strictness.

A comparison with a host of different country groups shows that India has to ramp up testing, enforce strict isolation of susceptible cases, and ensure early hospital admissions for the critical. With South Asian peers, India’s testing rate (tests per million people) is average, as is the death rate (deaths per million people). But, relatively more developed Southeast Asian countries have a lower death rate with higher testing rate in most cases (charts 3A and 3B).

Chart 4A maps the two rates for the developed economies of the world. They have the best testing rates but fatalities, too, have been high. Though the demographic profiles in these countries are inclined towards the elderly, aggressive testing also means they record Covid deaths more accurately than those with low testing rate, like India.

Chart 4B compares those economies that are emerging and are comparable to India. India has overtaken only Mexico in terms of testing rate, but barring China, all these — with higher per capita income than India — have a higher death rate.

Chart 5 shows the exponential nature of Covid spread in India.