The changing course of Covid: From metros to towns
Almost six months into Covid-19, big cities such as Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Chennai and Delhi have suffered the most. But, the pattern seems to be changing.
Sparsely populated states such as Chhattisgarh as well as densely populated but less economically integrated like Bihar are showing a faster growth in confirmed cases now. This suggests that relatively under-develop ed state s are catching up, though any trend is limited by low number of tests.
India’s tested barely 1-1.5 per cent of our population to date, against nearly 10 per cent by Canada and Germany, 14 per cent by the US, and more than 16 per cent by Russia and the UK.
Maharashtra and Gujarat showed a spurt in the number of confirmed cases in April. In May, eastern states reported a jump in growth. Hilly states witnessed a faster than average growth in cases in June. In July, there seems to be widespread growth in cases in all states, with some such as Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka showing late spread and Jharkhand showing a resurgence. The July spread seems more evenly distributed. At the same time, the addition of new cases in hotspots such as Mumbai and Delhi is declining. Delhi and Mumbai now add less than 1,000 cases a day each. It was 2,500 in the national capital on July 4 and around 1,400 in Mumbai end of June.
Why is this happening?
N K Arora, who leads the International Clinical Epidemiological Network, says the spread in non-metros and the rural is mostly in densely populated clusters, be it in villages or otherwise. Clusters of peri-urban areas—pockets surrounding the cities—and villages with dense population are the areas that are now picking up.
“Even a household is a small cluster. And if you talk about villages, it is the nucleus of the village that has the bulk of the cases. This is how Covid-19 is spreading in India,” Arora tells Business Standard.
There is also the statistical effect of having a lower base. Rajasthan had recorded 25,000 cases against Tamil Nadu’s 150,000 by July 15. If 1,500 new cases add to both states in a day, the former would show a growth of 6 per cent, while the latter, at just 1 per cent.
Yet, the July map suggests a normalisation i n growth rate across states. Researchers concur that all big spreads, irrespective of the state or the level of urbanisation, happen in clusters of closely packed households. So, experts believe localised approaches can be most effective.
“We have to analyse clusters for spread, and then aim to achieve herd immunity at the cluster level, and not at the big city or the state l evel,” says Jayaprakash Muliyil, a renowned epidemiologist and scientific advisor on various governmental committees.
The initial effect was more pronounced in cities as they are more networked, say some experts. They involve a large number people-to-people transactions on any particular day.
“But at the same time, cities are the entities that learn ver y quickly,” says Luis Bettencourt, director at University of Chicago’s Mansueto Institution for Urban Innovation, and a researcher in complex systems and urbanisation.
“In cities, the political processes are stronger, and people get a sense of responsibility faster than in other areas,” he says.
To some extent, this explains the control in new infections visible in Delhi and Mumbai.
Pune, about 100 miles from Mumbai, is showing higher number of confirmed daily cases. Possibly, stepping up of rapid antigen testing in Pune is a reason. In fact, officials in Pune have confirmed that antigen tests are showing more positive results than RT-PCR tests. Though they are less accurate, they are more inclined to give out “false positives” than “false negatives”.