Indicators show signs of gains as more people step out

Retail outlets saw a rise in footfall and more vehicles hit the roads amid talks of a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray warned of a second wave as cases crossed 1 million in the state.

Business Standard tracks pollution levels, railway freight, power generation, and traffic data. It gives a current picture of the economy ahead of official macroeconomic data, which is often released with a lag.

While the Railways data is as of September 12, the Google’s data appears with a lag and is as of September 8. All the other data is as of September 13.

Mumbai traffic has been on the rise even as the state grapples with higher numbers. It was at half of 2019 numbers in mid-august, according to the data from location technology firm Tomtom International. The data shows that it is down only 35 per cent from 2019, a steady gain over the last month. New Delhi continues to show a higher traffic recovery than Mumbai.

Nitrogen dioxide levels are the outcome of vehicular emissions and industrial activity. Emissions in Delhi are down less than 6 per cent. Mumbai’s Bandra locality data shows levels are 90 per cent below 2019 numbers.

People do seem to be stepping out to retail and recreation spots. Search engine Google aggregates anonymised data on visits to such locations. National numbers are at their highest since March-end. Grocery and pharmacy visits are higher than pre-covid times.

Another strong indicator of higher activity is the fact that the Railways is carrying more goods than before. Freight quantity and earnings are higher than in 2019. Similar gains were seen in the previous week. But the percentage gains are in double-digit for the current week, compared to single-digit earlier. Freight quantity is up over 15 per cent.

The power generation data has also been positive. The sum total of all power generated in India is higher now than it was in 2019.

A seven-day rolling average was considered. It had dropped by almost 30 per cent in April as the lockdown to control the Covid-19 pandemic took hold.

The relative recovery in the September quarter comes June gross domestic product showed record contraction. GDP fell by 23.9 per cent. This was the biggest fall since the quarterly data began to be made available in 1996.