Now, Finmin is not so sure about a V-shaped recovery

Officials say people spending less owing to uncertainty

The finance ministry is reassessing its earlier optimism about a V-shaped economic recovery as people are spending less owing to extreme uncertainty induced by the Covid-19 pandemic.

“We keep devising projections based on high-frequency indicators. The progress seems gradual, and not necessarily it would follow our previous assessment of growth trajectory,” a senior ministry official told Business Standard.

The finance ministry in its monthly economic review in August had said the country was witnessing a V-shaped recovery, and attributed the steep 23.9 per cent contraction of the economy in the April-june quarter to the stringent coronavirus lockdown.

Most ratings agencies and organisations have revised further downwards their projections of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 202021 since the government released the data for the first quarter, which showed the biggest contraction on record.

The official said the August pattern was based on indicators such as automobile and tractor sales and e-way bills, which had witnessed better performance and growth after the Unlock process was announced.

However, spending continues to be less as people who are getting direct benefits from the government are choosing to save in the current situation. “As part of the (Covid) stimulus package, the government has transferred a significant chunk of cash, but that has not been spent by the beneficiaries. This shows people are more focussed on saving due to uncertainties," the official said.

On the second round of stimulus package, he said work was in progress and inputs had been sought from all the departments. Without divulging the details of the new stimulus, the senior bureaucrat said the government was waiting for Covid-related health concerns to abate first.