Monsoon matters
In the second year of the Covid-19 pandemic, the monsoon rains shortly expected to hit India may have more riding on them than ever before. The rural economy was a saving grace for India’s 2020 gross domestic product numbers, which saw a rare recession not led by an agricultural shock. Three earlier ones in 1957-58, 1965-66 and 1979-80 were led by agricultural distress. Agriculture was a key bright spot of growth in 2020-21.
An even more virulent second wave means that economic growth, income and employment will again depend on agriculture to a large extent.
The India Meteorological Department expects the monsoon to hit Kerala on May 31 and to be normal this year. It recently revised its methodology to arrive at more accurate monsoon arrival and withdrawal dates. This comes on the back of two consecutive years where rainfall has been higher than the forecasts (chart 1).
India receives more than threefourth of its precipitation (water including rain and snow) in the four monsoon months. Only a portion of it is ultimately utilised (chart 2).
India has been falling behind on per capita availability of water. It was 5,177 cubic metres (m³) in 1950. The United Nations considers an area to be under water stress when the annual supply is below 1,700 m³. The drop in India is on account of population changes and not enough being done to augment water supply. India’s availability for 2021 is expected to be 1,486 m³ (chart 3).
This has meant that food production is also heavily dependent on rainfall. A large part of India’s food cultivation happens on land, which has no irrigation facility (chart 4).
The government has, however, projected higher production compared to last year for crops including rice and pulses (chart 5).
Agriculture employs more than 50 per cent of rural men and over 70 per cent of rural women, according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey of 2018-19. Rural unemployment accelerated in mid-may amid rising cases, shows data from the Mumbai-headquartered Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (chart 6).