IMD raises monsoon forecast to 101% of long period average

East and Northeast India may get less rain

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday upped its 2021 monsoon forecast to 101 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with most parts of the country — except parts of East and Northeast India — expected to get normal to above normal rainfall.

Rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal monsoon. The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent.

The LPA of the four-month southwest monsoon season — that starts from June — is 88 cm.

Releasing the second stage forecast for the 2021 monsoon season, the Met department said that the forecast has been revised upwards due to the prevailing neutral El Nino conditions along with neutral Indian Ocean Dipole. These two weather systems have a direct bearing on the performance of the southwest monsoon in India.

In its first stage forecast, released in April, the IMD had said the 2021 monsoon is expected to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA.

Region-wise, the IMD said that North-west India is expected to get normal rains at 92108 per cent of the LPA, while Central India may get above normal rainfall at more than 106 per cent of the LPA.

South India is expected to get rainfall between 93 and 107 per cent while North-east India may get below normal rains at less than 95 per cent.

However, some experts said a below normal rain in Northeast India is not always harmful as the daily average rainfall in these parts and also the overall quantum is higher than other parts of the country.

The rainfed areas of the country, which fall in the Core Monsoon Zone, are expected to get more than 106 per cent of the LPA rainfall in the four months of the monsoon season.

This should augur well for oilseeds, pulses and coarse cereals farmers as the rainfed region has very low irrigation penetration.

“A normal and region-wise well distributed monsoon is definitely a positive sign for agriculture, but it is too early to say what impact it will have on sowing of kharif crops and their final harvest. This is because just one factor cannot decide the final outcome. Shortage of labour, both during sowing and harvest, due to rampaging Covid in rural India, will have a big bearing on this year’s farm production,” Madan Sabnavis, chief economist CARE Ratings, told Business Standard.

Meanwhile, the IMD in its month-wise forecast, said in June, the southwest monsoon is expected to be normal at 92-108 per cent of the LPA with Central and Northeast India getting normal rains. Northwest India expected to get below normal rains in this period.

A few weeks ago, private weather forecasting agency Skymet had also said that the southwest monsoon in 2021 is likely to be ‘normal’ at 103 per cent of the LPA.

Skymet’s forecast was also with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent.

If both IMD’S and Skymet’s forecasts come true, it will mean that for the third consecutive year, India will have a normal to above normal monsoon.